Author: Ansem, Crypto KOL

Compiled by: Felix, PANews

Crypto KOL Ansem made a brief analysis of the current situation of the crypto market, which may help people understand the trends of different altcoins and the current position of the market. The following is the full text.

According to the K-line charts of BTC in Figure 1 and SOL in Figure 2, the current prices of BTC and SOL have not fallen below the lows since March 2022, and there is still a possibility of sideways consolidation before the next round of increases.

BTC trend (Figure 1)

SOL trend (Figure 2)

In Figure 3, AVAX (and most altcoins like it) has broken below its lows from March this year after hovering in a range for about 3 months. Is this the start of a new downtrend? Or is it capitulation before reclaiming key levels? Do you think these altcoins will regain strength and the current sell-off is exaggerated?

AVAX trend (Figure 3)

4) AAVE (older altcoin) has never seen an uptrend in this cycle and remains in the bear market range.

Are you betting that these altcoins will find a new narrative and eventually outperform the other top 100 tokens? Or are you betting that they will continue to underperform? What are the catalysts for different scenarios? (e.g. MKR’s Endgame Plan)

AAVE trend (Figure 4)

Most high-market-cap memes, such as PEPE and WIF, are similar to the trends of BTC and SOL; most newer infrastructures, such as TIA, ALTLAYER, and DYM are similar to the trends of AVAX.

Many altcoins peaked in March of this year and have entered a downtrend. It is safe to say that they have experienced most of the downside and people are only now realizing it. Regardless, a strong narrative is needed for altcoins to outperform from here on out.

There are three possible scenarios for the future.

1) BTC and SOL remain strong as outliers, with the current lows remaining unchanged in the past few months of consolidation ($58,000-60,000 and $110-120), while other altcoins digest most of the downside and bottom after the market further consolidates (the author's current view belongs to this situation, and only believes in sideways consolidation/down until the end of Q3/Q4)

2) The second scenario is that BTC and SOL are not outliers and they will eventually form a similar downward trend as other tokens.

In this case, we will see a true full-scale "capitulation" in the market, with SOL potentially hitting $85-100 and BTC potentially hitting $48,000-52,000.

3) The possibility of the entire market peaking, which the author believes is very low, but obviously this is the worst case scenario. This means that the total market value of all altcoins has only reached 50% of the peak of the previous cycle.

In the author's opinion, this situation is ridiculous, and the more likely scenario is sideways consolidation. With the continued flow of BTC and ETH ETFs, more application development is being fully built, and the crypto market is just passively fluctuating with the stock market.

Of course, the above does not include any analysis of the macro economy, nor does it include the situation where stocks are sold off in large quantities, which are also potential risks. Therefore, the above is only the author's personal opinion.

Related reading: The end of cryptocurrencies? 618 in the cryptocurrency market? What are the main problems in this round of market?