The market has reached this point today, and we still have to respect the signals sent by the market. The current market liquidity is indeed too poor. In fact, Bitcoin and Ethereum, which have relatively good liquidity, have not fallen much, but those who hold altcoins, as long as they have leverage, will be taken away if they do not set a stop loss. After all, the continuous sharp decline has cut most of the altcoins in half. As for the fact that this wave of altcoins can fall so deeply, I am also wondering why the market has developed like this.
In fact, the reason is that there are too many new products at present. There are large-scale unlocked altcoins every month, and new altcoins are launched online. The funds in the market are dispersed to various projects. In the case of insufficient concentration of funds, it may be difficult to achieve the increase you expect, especially for the old altcoins, such as LTC, ADA, XRP, etc. In the recent market, it is not difficult to find that BN's new products still have some money-making effects, such as BB, REZ, IO, etc., but the decline is also very rapid! Therefore, risks coexist with opportunities!
In this wave of decline, the same thing applies: as long as the principal is there, the opportunity is there!
More and more new projects are being launched, which dilutes the liquidity of the market itself and leads to worse money-making effect. This is why our current circle may become more and more difficult in the future with the cyclical development. Because, in the absence of changes in macro factors, the current market is actually in a state of stock game. Whether the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates or not is the key factor in the arrival of the bull market. In the absence of actual funds entering the market, this wave of many copycats has once again hit historical lows!
Many times, we don’t believe how the market will go, but when the result really comes, we still have to respect the market! When losing money or taking back profits, we need to summarize the reasons, sum up the experience and lessons, and make persistent efforts to create our own operating logic and find logical market opportunities!
There is no sign of stopping the decline at present, mainly due to insufficient liquidity and limited takeover orders. Many valuable stocks have fallen below the previous lows, which is really miserable! So, don’t gamble, it will definitely not fall that much!
I think the current position will definitely be what happens. No one knows whether it will continue to fall or rebound violently. It is all determined by the market. Judging from the strength of the rebound and the decline, this wave of decline is still relatively rapid and decisive. It seems that there is no follow-up order. Therefore, we are more concerned about Bitcoin or Ethereum to see when the market can stabilize. This is our opportunity to re-position! Therefore, for spot players on the car, there is no need to sell at the current position!
The market is always changing, and we need to adjust accordingly! Continue to summarize and improve, and look for trading opportunities that suit you!
Don’t expect the copycat season to come. When will the next copycat sector rotation come?
Let's talk about the next market first. After yesterday's oversold, the rebound was very weak. Most of the market makers of most projects did not support the market. After Bitcoin fell below the 65,000u strength and weakness dividing line, it weakened. In the next week, Bitcoin will fall back below 62,000u to absorb funds. Grayscale still has 280,000 Bitcoins left, and will give 80,000 Bitcoins to big investors such as BlackRock. The oscillation period is expected to be about 1-2 months.
We will also see it when Ethereum returns to below 3200u.
The copycats have been smashed to pieces in the past few days, and some of them have fallen back to the bottom of November 2023. If you have ambushed and pulled out the money before, now you have almost wasted a round.
At present, after three waves of correction, this round of small cottage season has ended. When will the next round of small cottage sector rise?
We have observed a pattern since 2022. August 2022 was the last altcoin season, and the Bitcoin season came six months after that.
The most recent altcoin season started eight months later, in January 2024. However, just five months later, it seems to be back to Bitcoin season (54% of Bitcoin market cap).
If this pattern continues, investors can expect the altcoin season to begin in about seven to eight months, that is, at the end of this year or in November or December 2024. In between, there will still be a period of volatility and a slow climb.
If you want to get the craziest profits, you still need more patience! Be more patient than the dog dealer, and you will get the most ruthless profits in the end.
In terms of ETFs, there was still a net outflow yesterday, and the capital outflow was obvious if the net inflow on June 12 was deducted.
There has been a net outflow for 6 consecutive days. The US stock market is at a high level and may fall back. There will be another PMI data on Friday. Next, we will focus on the release of unemployment benefits and CPI data on July 11.
Everything has its limits, and the market will not keep falling. We are cautiously bullish at the moment.
As the market has reached this point today, we still have to respect the signals sent by the market. The current market liquidity is indeed too poor. In fact, Bitcoin and Ethereum, which have relatively good liquidity, have not fallen much, but those who hold altcoins, as long as they have leverage, will be taken away if they do not set a stop loss. After all, the continuous sharp decline has cut most of the altcoins in half. As for the fact that this wave of altcoins can fall so deeply, I am also wondering why the market has developed like this.
In fact, the reason is that there are too many new products at present. There are large amounts of unlocked altcoins every month, and new altcoins are launched online. The funds in the market are dispersed to various projects. If the funds are not concentrated enough, the increase you expect may be difficult to achieve, especially for the old altcoins, such as LTC, ADA, XRP, etc. In the recent market, it is not difficult to find that BN's new products still have some money-making effects, such as BB, REZ, IO, etc., but the decline is also very rapid! Therefore, risks coexist with opportunities!
In this wave of decline, the same thing applies: as long as the principal is there, the opportunity is there!
More and more new projects are being launched, which dilutes the liquidity of the market itself and leads to worse money-making effect. This is why our current circle may become more and more difficult in the future with the cyclical development. Because, in the absence of changes in macro factors, the current market is actually in a state of stock game. Whether the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates or not is the key factor in the arrival of the bull market. In the absence of actual funds entering the market, this wave of many copycats has once again hit historical lows!
Many times, we don’t believe how the market will go, but when the result really comes, we still have to respect the market! When losing money or taking back profits, we need to summarize the reasons, sum up the experience and lessons, and make persistent efforts to create our own operating logic and find logical market opportunities!
There is no sign of stopping the decline at present, mainly due to insufficient liquidity and limited takeover orders. Many valuable stocks have fallen below the previous lows, which is really miserable! So, don’t gamble, it will definitely not fall that much!
I think the current position will definitely be what happens. No one knows whether it will continue to fall or rebound violently. It is all determined by the market. Judging from the strength of the rebound and the decline, this wave of decline is still relatively rapid and decisive. It seems that there is no follow-up order. Therefore, we are more concerned about Bitcoin or Ethereum to see when the market can stabilize. This is our opportunity to re-position! Therefore, for spot players on the car, there is no need to sell at the current position!
The market is always changing, and we need to adjust accordingly! Continue to summarize and improve, and look for trading opportunities that suit you!
Don’t expect the copycat season to come. When will the next copycat sector rotation come?
Let's talk about the next market first. After yesterday's oversold, the rebound was very weak. Most of the market makers of most projects did not support the market. After Bitcoin fell below the 65,000u strength and weakness dividing line, it weakened. In the next week, Bitcoin will fall back below 62,000u to absorb funds. Grayscale still has 280,000 Bitcoins left, and will give 80,000 Bitcoins to big investors such as BlackRock. The oscillation period is expected to be about 1-2 months.
We will also see it when Ethereum returns to below 3200u.
The copycats have been smashed to pieces in the past few days, and some of them have fallen back to the bottom of November 2023. If you have ambushed and pulled out the money before, now you have almost wasted a round.
At present, after three waves of correction, this round of small cottage season has ended. When will the next round of small cottage sector rise?
We have observed a pattern since 2022. August 2022 was the last altcoin season, and the Bitcoin season came six months after that.
The most recent altcoin season started eight months later, in January 2024. However, just five months later, it seems to be back to Bitcoin season (54% of Bitcoin market cap).
If this pattern continues, investors can expect the altcoin season to begin in about seven to eight months, that is, at the end of this year or in November or December 2024. In between, there will still be a period of volatility and a slow climb.
If you want to get the craziest profits, you still need more patience! Be more patient than the dog dealer, and you will get the most ruthless profits in the end.
In terms of ETFs, there was still a net outflow yesterday, and the capital outflow was obvious if the net inflow on June 12 was deducted.
There has been a net outflow for 6 consecutive days. The US stock market is at a high level and may fall back. There will be another PMI data on Friday. Next, we will focus on the release of unemployment benefits and CPI data on July 11.
Everything has its limits, and the market will not keep falling. We are cautiously bullish at the moment.
