Let's analyze the market in June and the second half of the year

1. From the historical situation, there are still many cases of 50% correction in the bull market. The sideways time is generally 2-4 months, and the outbreak time is generally 1-2 months. The increase is about 5 times. Now it has been 2 months in the bottom range. Maybe the dark moment is about to pass.

2. At present, many cottages have fallen back to the bottom. It is meaningless to cut losses at this time.

3. Regarding the expectation of interest rate cuts, there will be at least one in the second half of this year. Because of the superposition of the general election, the probability of interest rate cuts in November is very high. Ethereum ETF will also pass in the second half of the year, which is also a long-term positive. There will be 3-4 interest rate cuts next year at the end of the year. Therefore, the third quarter is a good time for configuration.

4. From the monthly line of Bitcoin, the bull market is still there. At present, the monthly line is just sideways, laying the foundation for the next wave of increases. Even if there is a correction, $60,000 is the limit.

5. The main option positions in the futures market are concentrated on June 28, and its biggest pain point is $55,000. Data shows that the notional amount of option positions on June 28 was $6.564 billion, of which the number of call options was 65,800, worth $4.454 billion, accounting for 67% of the total notional amount. This shows that the market is bullish on late June.