From the start of the market in September last year, the correction before the holiday, to the fermentation of the OK theft incident, we can make a conclusive summary: the cryptocurrency circle will not rise as before. The bear market will ambush the bull market and make a fortune. High-multiple coins are flying all over the sky. It is a thing of the past to make a fortune in the bull market. Now we need to make a foresighted and reasonable layout with depth, accuracy, and rationality. The cryptocurrency circle has entered a more formal track from the wild era. We still have the hope of getting rich in the cryptocurrency circle, but the difficulty is much greater than the previous three times. In the first three times, a lot of BTC was mined, especially the first time, the price fluctuated greatly, and then slowly decreased. After the fourth halving, the annual output of the remaining BTC has no waves for the trillion-dollar volume. In addition, with the passage of ETFs, its linkage with US stocks, gold, and oil has become stronger and stronger. The entry of Wall Street has made trading more professional (in simple terms, it is grinding to death). Now the market value of most coins is already very high, and the new coins have a circulation market value of several hundred million. It is impossible to increase by hundreds of times or thousands of times. The early small market value and the situation of thousands of times of fomo are history. Now it is good to have a 5-fold.
Let me give you an example to make it easier to understand. When the Chinese real estate market first started, you could make several times more money just by buying a house and holding it. The housing prices in small counties also rose. In the past few years, the housing prices have fallen, and the decline in small cities has been more severe. They have begun to return to the value level, but the houses in good locations in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen will not fall, and will rise in the future. After this drop in housing prices, they will definitely rise, but it will only rise in a fixed point, not a general rise. The better the city, the better the location, the more it will rise. Coupled with inflation, the rise will not be worse than before. The same is true for the currency circle. Now that we have entered the era of precise investment, the currency circle has also returned to its original value and decentralization. This is also the reason why the big cake and meme coins have risen. Full circulation is fair to everyone, and the currency price is raised by faith, narrative, and consensus. For projects invested by institutions, you take the bottom price chips yourself and go to the exchange to cut leeks. The brothers in the currency circle will not spoil you and will not take your orders! There was no VC in the currency circle projects at the beginning! The zigzag progress and spiral rise have returned to the starting point, but the grade has been raised by one level.
If you agree with the above viewpoints of BTB Investment Research, please continue reading. If you disagree, you can skip the following content!
Based on the above analysis of the current situation, let's talk about the impact of US interest rates on the cryptocurrency market. Some people say that interest rate hikes will lead to a fall, while others say that interest rate cuts will lead to a surge. BTB Investment Research uses facts to show what impact US interest rates have on the cryptocurrency market? And analyze whether it is the peak of the bull market now, how long will the bull market last? How high can BTC go? And other issues that everyone is concerned about.
Let’s first look at the data in the picture below. The data comes from the official interest rate data of the Federal Reserve, and the BTC price is calculated based on the monthly closing data of major exchanges.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates at 0.25% from 2009 to 2015 (the bull market in 2013);
In 2017, BTC reached around 20,000, and the interest rate remained at 1.5%;
In 2021, BTC reached 69,000, and the interest rate remained at 0.25%;
The interest rate now remains at 5.5%.
In 2017, the interest rate hike was in the upward channel, so it cannot be said that the interest rate hike caused BTC to collapse. This time, BTC reached 73777, which is also in the interest rate hike channel. A more accurate analysis is that as long as the Fed keeps the interest rate unchanged at a certain stage during the interest rate hike or cut, it will be beneficial to the rise of BTC and may set a new high.
In November 2000, interest rates were cut because the Internet financial bubble burst in March 2000, and they were lowered all the way to save the economy;
The US subprime mortgage crisis in April 2007 led to the global financial crisis in 2008, and the US began to cut interest rates in September of the same year;
There was no sign of a major event in the interest rate cut in 2019, and the global epidemic directly accelerated the interest rate cut to 0.25%. (The darkness before the 2021 bull market)
It is inferred that there will be systemic financial risks in the world 5-6 months before the Fed cuts interest rates. If the United States cuts interest rates in September or December, systemic risks will occur in the next few months. Now there are no signs of systemic risks in the world, so it is impossible to cut interest rates this year. It is possible to raise interest rates, and even if they are raised, they may rise!
If a rate cut in September or December is certain, there will be a big drop in the next one or two months, and the depth is to welcome the dawn!
The interest rate cuts in Canada and Europe are actually a move to consolidate the high interest rate position of the United States. With other countries cutting interest rates, the United States does not need to raise interest rates to consolidate its position as the highest interest rate, and avoid the negative impact of interest rate hikes. The recent decline of the US dollar index below 100 is also the reason for not raising interest rates. The media hype of the US dollar interest rate cut to cause the dollar to depreciate has no effect.
The bull market is still there, and it is only halfway through. BTC will conservatively reach 100,000, and if you are bold, it can reach 150,000-200,000. Hold on to the currencies you like and let time give you an answer.
