CPI is lower than expected, interest rate meeting maintains interest rate

6.12 20:30 (Beijing time) US CPI was lower than expected. After the data was released, Bitcoin rose from $68,000 to $70,000 in a short period of time, up 3%. After the Fed’s interest rate meeting on June 13 at 02:00 (Beijing time), the price of Bitcoin fell from $70,000 to $67,000, down -4.3%. Chairman Powell clearly released a message at the subsequent press conference: it is very inappropriate to cut interest rates in a short period of time. Only when the Fed sees more encouraging data and is more confident that inflation can sustainably move closer to the 2% target, can interest rate cuts be put on the agenda.

There are about 45 days until the next Federal Reserve interest rate meeting (2024.08.01)

https://hk.investing.com/economic-calendar/interest-rate-decision-168

Market technical and sentiment environment analysis

Sentiment Analysis Components

Technical indicators

Price trend

In the past week, BTC price fell by -5.69% and ETH price fell by -9.02%.

The above picture is the price chart of BTC in the past week

The above picture is the price chart of ETH in the past week

The table shows the price change rate over the past week.

Price Volume Distribution Chart (Support and Resistance)

In the past week, BTC and ETH broke downward through the area of ​​intensive trading and fluctuated at a low level.

The above picture shows the distribution of BTC’s concentrated trading areas in the past week.

The above picture shows the distribution of ETH's dense trading areas in the past week.

The table shows the weekly intensive trading range of BTC and ETH in the past week.

Volume and Open Interest

In the past week, the trading volume of BTC and ETH was the largest when they fell on June 7, followed by the CPI and FOMC events on June 12. The open interest of BTC and ETH both decreased.

The top of the above picture shows the price trend of BTC, the middle is the trading volume, the bottom is the open interest, the light blue is the 1-day average, and the orange is the 7-day average. The color of the K line represents the current state, green means the price rise is supported by trading volume, red is closing positions, yellow is slowly accumulating positions, and black is crowded.

The top of the above picture shows the price trend of ETH, the middle is the trading volume, the bottom is the open interest, the light blue is the 1-day average, and the orange is the 7-day average. The color of the K-line represents the current state, green means the price rise is supported by trading volume, red is closing positions, yellow is slowly accumulating positions, and black is crowded.

Historical Volatility vs. Implied Volatility

In the past week, the historical volatility of BTC and ETH was the highest when the data was released on June 12; the implied volatility of BTC and ETH has declined.

The yellow line is the historical volatility, the blue line is the implied volatility, and the red dot is its 7-day average

Event-driven

In terms of events, at 20:30 on June 12 (Beijing time), the U.S. CPI was lower than expected. After the data was released, Bitcoin rose from 68,000 U.S. dollars to 70,000 U.S. dollars in a short period of time, up 3%. Then at 02:00 on June 13 (Beijing time), after the Federal Reserve announced the maintenance of interest rates at its interest rate meeting, the price of Bitcoin fell from 70,000 U.S. dollars to 67,000 U.S. dollars, down -4.3%.

Sentiment Indicators

Momentum Sentiment

In the past week, among Bitcoin/Gold/Nasdaq/Hang Seng Index/SSE 300, Nasdaq was the strongest, while Bitcoin performed the worst.

The above picture shows the trend of different assets in the past week.

Lending Rate_Lending Sentiment

Over the past week, the average annualized return on USD lending was 10.4%, and short-term interest rates rebounded to around 11.2%.

The yellow line is the highest price of the USD interest rate, the blue line is 75% of the highest price, and the red line is the 7-day average of 75% of the highest price.

The table shows the average return of USD interest rate for different holding days in the past

Funding Rate_Contract Leverage Sentiment

Over the past week, the average annualized return on BTC fees was 11%, and contract leverage sentiment remained at a normal level.

The blue line is the funding rate of BTC on Binance, and the red line is its 7-day average

The table shows the average return of BTC for different holding days in the past

Market Correlation_Consensus Sentiment

The correlation among the 129 coins selected in the past week rose to around 0.9, and the consistency between different varieties was at a high level.

In the above figure, the blue line is the bitcoin price, and the green line is ['1000 floki', '1000 lunc', '1000 pepe', '1000 shib', '100 0x ec', '1inch', 'aave', 'ada', 'agix', 'algo', 'ankr', 'ant', 'ape', 'apt', 'arb', 'ar', 'astr', 'atom', 'audio', 'avax', 'axs', 'bal', 'band', 'bat', 'bch', 'bigtime', 'blur', 'bnb', 'btc', 'celo', 'cfx', 'chz', 'ckb', 'comp', 'crv', 'cvx', 'cyber', 'dash', 'doge', 'dot', 'dydx', 'egld', 'enj', 'ens', 'eos','etc', 'eth', 'fet', 'fil', 'flow', 'ftm', 'fxs', 'gala', 'gmt', 'gmx', 'grt', 'hbar', 'hot', 'icp', 'icx', 'imx', 'inj', 'iost', 'iotx', 'jasmy', 'kava', 'klay', 'ksm', 'ldo', 'link', 'loom', 'lpt', 'lqty', 'lrc', 'ltc', 'luna 2', 'magic', 'mana', 'matic', 'meme', 'mina', 'mkr', 'near', 'neo', 'ocean', 'one', 'ont', 'op', 'pendle', 'qnt', 'qtum', 'rndr', 'rose', 'rune', 'rvn', 'sand', 'sei', 'sfp', 'skl', 'snx', 'sol', 'ssv', 'stg', 'storj', 'stx', 'sui', 'sushi', 'sxp', 'theta', 'tia', 'trx', 't', 'uma', 'uni', 'vet', 'waves', 'wld', 'woo', 'xem', 'xlm', 'xmr', 'xrp', 'xtz', 'yfi', 'zec', 'zen', 'zil', 'zrx'] overall correlation

Market Breadth_Overall Sentiment

Among the 129 coins selected in the past week, 5.5% of the prices were above the 30-day moving average, 7.8% of the prices were above the 30-day moving average relative to BTC, 7% of the prices were more than 20% away from the lowest price in the past 30 days, and 6.3% of the prices were less than 10% from the highest price in the past 30 days. The market breadth indicator in the past week showed that the overall market was in a downward trend for most coins.

上图为['bnb', 'btc', 'sol', 'eth', '1000 floki', '1000 lunc', '1000 pepe', '1000 sats', '1000 shib', '100 0x ec', '1inch', 'aave', 'ada', 'agix', 'ai', 'algo', 'alt', 'ankr', 'ape', 'apt', 'arb', 'ar', 'astr', 'atom',  'avax', 'axs', 'bal', 'band', 'bat', 'bch', 'bigtime', 'blur', 'cake', 'celo', 'cfx', 'chz', 'ckb', 'comp', 'crv', 'cvx', 'cyber', 'dash', 'doge', 'dot', 'dydx', 'egld', 'enj', 'ens', 'eos','etc', 'fet', 'fil', 'flow', 'ftm', 'fxs', 'gala', 'gmt', 'gmx', 'grt', 'hbar', 'hot', 'icp', 'icx', 'idu', 'imx', 'inj', 'iost', 'iotx', 'jasmy', 'jto', 'jup', 'kava', 'klay', 'ksm', 'ldo', 'link', 'loom', 'lpt', 'lqty', 'lrc', 'ltc', 'luna 2', 'magic', 'mana', 'manta', 'mask', 'matic', 'meme', 'mina', 'mkr', 'near', 'neo', 'nfp', 'ocean', 'one', 'ont', 'op', 'ordi', 'pendle', 'pyth', 'qnt', 'qtum', 'rndr', 'robin', 'rose', 'rune', 'rvn', 'sand', 'sei', 'sfp', 'skl', 'snx', 'ssv', 'stg', 'storj', 'stx', 'sui', 'sushi', 'sxp', 'theta', 'tia', 'trx', 't', 'uma', 'uni', 'vet', 'waves', 'wif', 'wld', 'woo','xai', 'xem', 'xlm', 'xmr', 'xrp', 'xtz', 'yfi', 'zec', 'zen', 'zil', 'zrx' ] 30 日的各宽度指标占比

Summarize

In the past week, the prices of both Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) experienced two declines, and volatility reached an all-time high when the data was released on June 12. The trading volume of Bitcoin and Ethereum reached its highest level during the decline on June 7, and then there was a large trading volume when the data was released on June 12. The open interest of Bitcoin and Ethereum has declined slightly, and the implied volatility has also declined. In addition, the funding rate of Bitcoin has remained at an average level, and the market breadth indicator shows that most currencies have returned to a downward trend. In terms of events, the prices of mainstream currencies rose after the release of US CPI data, and then fell again after the Fed’s interest rate meeting.

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