Bitcoin hasn’t had a so-called bull market for a long time. How can it be called a bull market if it only doubles in half a year? In the past, the big bull markets would increase several times in a year.

After the halving, the mining cost should be around $36,000 to $40,000. This is a very important support line. Historically, there have been very few times when the price was lower than the mining cost.

In addition, the entry price of institutions such as BlackRock is around $40,000, so $40,000 can be said to be the bottom of the next bear market, and there is a 90% probability that it will not fall below this bottom. Of course, nothing is absolute, so leave a 10% probability to wait for a slap in the face, which is also the reason why you should try not to touch the contract. You have 90% confidence, but if you encounter a black swan and become that 10%, you will be useless.

The current price is around $65,000. If the bull market is over, the short-selling profit margin is only $20,000, and if it fails, there is a risk of losing $100,000. The risk-return ratio is really low.

So I think it should rise to at least $100,000, and then a bear market will start to open up, which will be more attractive for short sellers to make a profit. By then, the maximum profit of short selling can be close to $60,000.

Now the market value of Bitcoin is too large, and the volatility is getting smaller and smaller. The volatility in the last month is not as good as that of gold and silver. In a bull market, the upward space may be only 1-2 times, so in a bear market, the downward space is about 50%.

Therefore, after this halving, the price should reach the range of $100,000-150,000 with a 90% probability. Of course, it may fluctuate for a long time in the middle, but before the next bear market comes, the probability of touching $100,000 is very high.

Of course, I think it is impossible to get millions of dollars as Wood predicted. Gold will definitely still have collection and storage value in 1,000 years, but Bitcoin will most likely be eliminated in 100 years. Bitcoin is definitely a Ponzi scheme, but before a better new Ponzi scheme comes out, Bitcoin is the best Ponzi scheme target. What can replace Bitcoin will definitely not be other altcoins, but a new form of currency.

The bitcoin bubble bursts every few years, and then it continues to be hyped up by new dealers to make money. Because of the mining cost, the price basically fluctuates upward along the mining cost. This aspect is really similar to gold and silver. The mining cost is also an important support line for gold and silver, and the price also fluctuates upward along the mining cost line for a long time.

So my conclusion is that the bull market is not over yet, but it is no longer suitable for small capital players. If you don’t have 3-5 million, it’s meaningless to play big. For big capital players, doubling is still very tempting. If you add leverage, it’s a life-or-death situation, so don’t touch it. Most people don’t have that kind of luck.