Space Notes | ETH swap to Tesla: Do you regret it?

[Key Points]

Chensong @mornpine

Using the investment framework to make a shadow, what is the framework? It is called "short-term sentiment, medium-term policy, and long-term growth".

The reason why this framework is effective is that although humans can live freely in the three-dimensional space of time and space, everyone is equal in the time dimension. Everyone can only move forward at a constant speed along the time axis. We are all creatures trapped on the time axis. When discussing how to cross the long river of time, this framework is meaningful to everyone;

Second, it can better test yourself and help find the path that suits your investment;

Third, when discussing with others, it can help us cut our own and the other party's views into more detailed pieces.

Look at growth in the long term: see how fast the overall energy of the market is growing? We compared web3 and FSD in terms of TAM. At that time, we had a misunderstanding about web3 and naturally thought it was a continuation of web2. However, how big Web 3 can grow has nothing to do with Web 2. It is mainly related to blockchain and distributed ledgers. Since FSD has made a breakthrough, it is now possible that it is in the first month of the outbreak. The update and iteration speed is quite fast, and the initiative is still in Tesla's hands.

Look at policies in the medium term: Policies here are divided into monetary policy and political policy. Monetary policy refers to high interest rates, which are very unfavorable to the development of the virtual economy. Even if interest rates are cut in the future, they will most likely remain above 4%. Tesla has a slight advantage in this regard, because FSD is more likely to make a profit at present, so investing in Tesla in the high-interest era is both safe and has a higher ceiling. When facing the volatility of monetary policy, we should ask ourselves what will the investment group do if the high interest rate of more than 40% continues for 10 years, if the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates as expected but raises interest rates, and if the interest rate cut is an emergency cut after a huge crisis?

Look at emotions in the short term: If there is no big problem with the medium- and long-term judgment, short-term emotions can help us vaguely find a good buying range. As for Tesla's sentiment, when people are very optimistic about the future of FSD, at such a divergent moment, it is definitely a very vague buying range. As for when and how to buy, different people have different strategies.