June 13, 2024

Last night, the overall US CPI data showed a downward trend. The market was initially bullish, and BTC rebounded strongly as expected, but then the Fed’s interest rate decision was announced, and the dot plot of only one interest rate cut was announced, as well as Powell’s speech. The market began to worry about the prospect of the Fed’s interest rate hike.

The emergence of cautious interest rate cut remarks has led to a significant reversal in the market, resulting in BTC’s failure to maintain its strength in the capital flow area. Previous data show that BTC is currently in a state of consolidation and shock.

Yesterday’s net inflow was about US$1.257 billion. Today’s closing price and opening price are both below the daily capital outflow area of ​​US$68,768~68,882. Failure to hold this area means that the market has not effectively turned bullish.

But it has now entered a period of consolidation and shock. According to early trading data, BTC may fluctuate around this area throughout the day. Today’s shock range is expected to be $66,705.36~$69,498.96.

Resistance: US$68,768~US$68,882.

Support: $66,705.36.

Indicators: The daily chart indicator shows a 10% bullish signal and a 90% bearish signal.

Long-short ratio: The ratio of long and short positions has dropped to 1.66, showing a slight bearish advantage.

Funding rate: The range is from -0.0078% to 0.01%, reflecting pessimism.

Open interest: The total open interest of futures contracts is $35.89 billion, down 3.06% from the previous trading day.

Fear and Greed Index: It is 72, and the turnover rate is 19%.

Macroeconomic data has eased, downside risks have decreased, and it has entered a consolidation and shock stage. In the long run, BTC is still in a bullish trend, and signs of a pullback have temporarily eased.

US CPI data for May showed that the unadjusted annual rate was 3.3%, lower than the expected 3.4%, a three-month low. The core CPI in May recorded 3.4%, lower than the expected 3.5%, the lowest level since April 2021.

The decline increased market expectations for two rate cuts in 2024. However, the Fed’s dot plot and Powell’s comments have tempered those expectations and now suggest only one rate cut, likely in September or November, with a current probability of more than 50%.