In the early morning, the Fed's attitude reversed, and the interest rate cut plan may change! Where will Bitcoin go in the second half of the year?

As expected, the article posted at 23:00 last night reminded everyone not to be too optimistic. There was also the Fed's interest rate meeting and Powell's speech in the early morning. The interest rate announced at 2:00 a.m. was in line with expectations and remained unchanged in June, but the published dot plot showed that the expectation of interest rate cuts this year has dropped from a possible 3 times to 1 time.

Powell also said in his speech that "recent inflation data is more favorable than earlier this year, and some progress has been made in inflation targets." Despite this, the Fed still needs to see more good data to increase its confidence in the sustainable progress of inflation to 2%.

See, the Fed is a master of playing with expectations. They will give you a candy first and then a slap in the face, so we also saw that the U.S. stock market surged before the opening yesterday, but the three major indexes rose and fell at the close. Cryptocurrency is also the same. Bitcoin and Ethereum surged when the May CPI data was just released. Bitcoin rebounded to 70,000 US dollars, but it plunged again to 68,000 US dollars after 2:00 a.m.

For the next trend, I think the probability of an upward breakthrough will be greater, because according to the derivatives trading trend on coinglass, longs have increased their leveraged positions by $2.8 billion, and $BTC longs are expected to rise again to around $71,000.

The short contract value is less than $1.35 billion, and the long position exceeds the short position value by more than $1.5 billion, which means that the bulls are in a dominant position. However, in the current market, if the price of Bitcoin exceeds the $70,300 mark, the shorts will lose $1 billion. In order to avoid such a large loss, Bitcoin shorts will deploy stop-loss orders and sell on a large scale to prevent the rebound.

But if the price of Bitcoin gains enough momentum to break through the resistance, the bulls may target $72,000, so $70,300 is the key point! Everyone pay attention!

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