Yesterday, the CPI data recorded an annual rate of 3.4%, the expected rate was 3.50%, and the previous value was 3.60%. It was lower than expected, which was a positive, and the market surged!
Dabai asked everyone to buy a few spot stocks at the bottom, and they were not far from a rebound, and they had a rise of more than 10%
At 2 a.m., the Federal Reserve announced its decision to maintain the interest rate unchanged, which was in line with market expectations and had little impact on the market, but Powell's speech later was a bit neutral and hawkish, causing the market to pull back again!
Follow Dabai to see what Powell said?
1. The dot plot does not represent the final decision of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and more data is still needed.
2. The Federal Reserve has no expectation of raising interest rates.
3. There are only two data that affect the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates. One is that inflation can see a path to fall to 2%, and the other is the deterioration of employment data.
In other words, the unemployment rate is still the focus of the Federal Reserve
4. Wage growth is currently the main cause of inflation. Non-farm data is still the most important thing to pay attention to now. One is the growth rate of wages. In the last non-farm data, wages have already risen. This time, Powell directly equated inflation with wages, which is the first time.
The unemployment rate is still the main basis for the Fed to change its interest rate cut strategy. The higher the unemployment rate, the more interest rate cuts may be.
5. Single inflation data is meaningless to the Fed
6. There was no mention of balance sheet reduction.
Overall, Powell's speech this time was very neutral, much more neutral than last time. This time, no one asked about the balance sheet reduction, and Powell did not talk about balance sheet reduction, so there is no way to judge the Fed's views on slowing down the balance sheet reduction. If you take this into consideration, it may be a little hawkish. The market needs more positive voices, but none of them were heard.
It is generally neutral and hawkish. The reason for the hawkishness is that there is no positive information and no balance sheet reduction information.
The next market trend will still fluctuate upward, and it still needs news to stimulate. You can pay attention to the news that ETFs have started trading. This will have a great stimulus to the market. A large amount of funds will enter the market, which will bring a lot of liquidity to the market and promote the market to rise!
#美联储连续第七次维持基准利率不变
