On June 12, the U.S. released data showing that the annual rate of CPI in May was 3.3%, lower than the expected value of 3.40% and lower than the previous value of 3.40%. The annual rate of core CPI in May was 3.4%, lower than the expected value of 3.50% and lower than the previous value of 3.60%. The monthly rate of CPI in May was 0%, lower than the expected value of 0.10% and lower than the previous value of 0.30%; the monthly rate of core CPI after seasonal adjustment in May was 0.2%, lower than the expected value of 0.30% and lower than the previous value of 0.30%. After the data was released, the U.S. interest rate swap market fully priced in two 25 basis point interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2024. It is expected that the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut in November will reach 100%, and the probability of a rate cut in September is about 70%.

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The EU Crypto-Asset Market Regulation (MiCA) will be implemented in stages. Existing stablecoin issuers must adjust their operations to comply with certain MiCA requirements starting from the June 30 deadline. The most stringent requirements will take full effect later, ensuring that existing businesses have a transition period to adapt. According to the report of the European Security Innovation Center, privacy coins, mixers and L2 platforms may make it difficult for law enforcement agencies to track funds, and they need to be prepared to encounter such tools in investigations. Musk faces shareholder lawsuits because his acquisition of Twitter has harmed Tesla's interests. According to court documents, Musk has voluntarily withdrawn his previous lawsuit against OpenAI. Musk said that if Apple integrates OpenAI at the operating system level, Apple devices will be banned from entering his own company, which is an unacceptable security violation. Mistral Al announced the completion of a 600 million euro Series B financing round, with BNP Paribas, IBM, a16z and others participating. Mistral AI's current competitors include OpenAl, Anthropic and others. Analyst Matthew Sigel said that the scale of BTC ETF will exceed US$500 billion in the United States within 5 years. Ed Hindi, chief investment officer of Tyr Capital, said: "In the short to medium term, $5 billion to $10 billion may flow in through ETH products, which will drive ETH and its ecosystem to a record high by the end of 2024. Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, said that the most attractive intersection in the asset management field is ETFs and cryptocurrencies. Basically, it is the gateway between the present and the future. If the spot ETH ETF S-1 is not approved by the end of the month, it will be surprising. The SEC has no reason to delay. The follow-up work of the ETH futures ETF and the spot BTC ETF has been completed.

Robert Kiyosaki, author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, said: "It's hard to make millions of dollars as an entrepreneur. You have to be very smart, focused and lucky to become a millionaire through your own business. You keep BTC because BTC does all this hard work for you." Glassnode data shows that as investors wait for higher prices in the bull market, the balances of BTC and ETH on centralized exchanges have dropped sharply, with BTC falling to less than 2.3 million and ETH falling to less than 16 million. Both have fallen to their lowest point in four years, and analysts interpret this move as a bullish signal for the future. Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, said that for the next round of increases, the US BTC market is more important than other global markets. Stablecoins are often regarded as buy-side liquidity, and their market value is growing. Coinbase has a 46% share of the global BTC/USD spot market and its influence is rising, which may be driven by institutional brokerage services. Data released by the United States on June 12 showed that in May, the annual CPI rate was 3.3%, lower than the expected value of 3.40% and lower than the previous value of 3.40%; the monthly CPI rate was 0%; the annual core CPI rate was 3.4%, lower than the expected value of 3.50% and lower than the previous value of 3.60%; the monthly core CPI rate was 0.2%, lower than the expected value of 0.30% and lower than the previous value of 0.30%. In May, the core CPI fell to 3.4, the lowest level since April 2021; the monthly CPI rate in May fell to 0.2%, the lowest level since October 2023.

After the data was released, the interest rate swap market fully priced in two 25 basis point rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in 2024. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in November is expected to reach 100%, and the probability of a rate cut in September is about 70%. The Nasdaq index opened up 1.8% to 17,677 points, and the S&P 500 index rose 1% to 5,445 points, both hitting record highs. Apple's stock price rose 5% during the day, standing above $215, surpassing Microsoft's market value to reach $3.3 trillion, re-topping the global market value list. Microsoft's market value is $3.25 trillion. BTC hit $70,000 again. Fitch Ratings said that while waiting for the "main course" of the interest rate meeting later today, CPI is a pleasant "appetizer". If the downward trend continues, it will surely enhance people's confidence and the window for rate cuts later this year will remain open. Analyst Adam Sarhan said that the fact that CPI was lower than expected is a catalyst for the market to expect another rise, which also gives the Federal Reserve a lot of room to start easing and/or tend to ease interest rates in the foreseeable future. Analyst Enda Curran believes that the US May CPI report was welcomed and ignited the debate over the Fed's September rate cut. Bank of America expects gold to rise to $3,000 per ounce by 2025 (currently $2,322 per ounce). Jabaz Mathai, head of Citibank, said, "So far, most of the soft data (survey data, etc.) have been weaker than expected, leading forecasters to believe that economic weakness is just around the corner. Kathy Jones, a strategist at Charles Schwab, said: Inflationary pressures will ease and the Fed will eventually cut interest rates one or two times before the end of the year. HSBC expects that any subsequent interest rate fluctuations are unlikely to "soar to last year's levels, let alone 2022 levels", so any weakness in risky assets will be short-lived, and the Fed's hawkish attitude may provide a good tactical entry point to return to risky assets.

K33 Research data shows that after the record 19-day net inflow record of the US spot BTCETF ended, the correlation between BTC and the US stock market has reached an 18-month high of 0.64. Analyst Ric Edelman said that US financial advisors are now more willing to include BTC in their investment portfolios. In the past three months, the number of financial advisors willing to include BTC in their investment portfolios in the next year has increased by 80%, thanks to the listing of the spot BTCETF in January and the participation of asset management giant BlackRock. As of last Friday, the gap between BlackRock IBIT (holding about 304,900 BTC) and Grayscale GBTC (holding about 285,100 BTC) has widened to about 20,000 BTC. The overall CPI in the United States in May was 3.3%, and the core CPI was 3.4%, both of which fell beyond expectations. The interest rate market has expanded from the previous forecast of less than two interest rate cuts before the end of the year to fully expecting two interest rate cuts. The possibility of a rate cut in September is 70%, and the expectation of a rate cut in November is 100%. The correlation between Bitcoin and the US stock market has reached an 18-month high of 0.64. The current $70,000 is also the historical high in 2021. It is the first stop before the interest rate cut. The arrival of the interest rate cut wave is the second stop of the currency market bull market, and it is also a real bull market with water release, giving birth to a new bubble wave. (The first interest rate cut is currently expected in September and November) #美国5月CPI超预期回落 #美联储利率决策即将公布 #美联储何时降息？