【Analysis of the Big Trend】

      

The market is mainly focused on the issue of interest rate cuts. The interest rate decision on Wednesday will most likely continue to maintain high interest rates in June, and the interest rate cut will most likely be postponed.


Before the rate cut narrative is implemented, the market will continue to clean up. June and July are the period of institutional accumulation, and there will be a period of volatility and decline.

Our operational thinking at this stage is that if the interest rate meeting is postponed, the market may fall in June, and there may be a turnaround in July, because the leverage will continue to be cleared in June, and positive news may be slowly released from the end of July, which will provide opportunities for the layout of altcoin swing operations.


【Daytime analysis part】

 

BTC once again entered the 70,000 era a few days ago, and broke through the consolidation high that lasted for nearly a month. The price stalemate combined with the non-agricultural data led to a bearish downward trend in the market. Yesterday’s market decline further tested the longitude position.


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A new round of Bitcoin correction occurred and the price fell rapidly. It took only two days to reach the longitude position of 67,000 again.


This position is being further verified, and there are risks and opportunities.


It can be clearly identified from the market trend that this decline is mainly due to leverage liquidation. If it stabilizes above 67,000 this week, we should still pay attention to the opportunity to break through new highs again in the next step.


At the same time, we should also pay attention to the need to partially reduce holdings if the market falls below 67,000.


【Counterfeit spot recommendations】

Ethereum had a large increase in the early stage due to the support of good news, but it did not continue. We mentioned earlier that if ETH wants to break through the new high, it must stabilize at the 3820 line to have a chance, but it did not stabilize.

Regarding ETH's short-term resistance level of 3620, this position currently forms resistance. Before it breaks through, short-term players and contract players are advised to wait and see.

The breakthrough and retracing coins recommended in the early stage can still be paid attention to. The market will be volatile in the next step, and the altcoins are expected to usher in an oversold rebound.

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How to judge whether this round of bull market is rising fast or slow? This is a technical issue. The momentum of price increase is not simply based on the speed of change, but on its sustainability.


For example, assuming that a bull market takes one year to complete, then if this bull market fluctuates at a low level in the first 11 months of this year, but rises by 300% in the last month, and then peaks and enters a bear market, would you call this a bull market?


Although the price rose very fast in the last month, this kind of market situation does not represent the continuous demand in the market. It can only be regarded as the main operation, which is more common in the market of small-cap altcoins. This kind of bull market has only one purpose: to increase shipments;


Therefore, for BTC, the bull market we need to see is a long-term process with long-term sustainability, continuous buying, and rising prices. This structure corresponds to the long-term strong demand, indicating that people are truly buying, holding, and holding for the long term.

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