The US CPI and the Fed's decision are coming. As investors, we have to ask ourselves a question. Do we want to take a gamble or look for a better opportunity?

What I mean by taking a gamble is that the CPI data will undoubtedly drive the market, which makes some people eager to try before the data, but we don't know what the data will be, and it is very important that it is not the data itself that drives the market, but the market's position preparation for the data.

For example, before the release of the non-farm data last Friday, bonds were quite strong and the US dollar was slightly weak. As a result, the non-farm data exceeded expectations across the board, and the market was not prepared for this. Therefore, the market was shaken, the US dollar and bonds fell sharply, and the cryptocurrency circle plunged twice.

So today we have to figure out what the market is preparing for CPI? Since last Friday, a large number of ETFs have been sold off, but the US dollar has been strengthening, indicating that the market believes that the data will meet or slightly exceed expectations. So this is a bit different from last week's positioning, and the reaction mechanism will also be different.

If we trade unknown data now, it's a bit like flipping a coin. When professionals trade, whether it's hedge funds or Buffett, they don't think about flipping a coin. And only trade when there is an advantage, and having an advantage means a greater chance of winning, so as traders or disconnected investors, we must avoid this coin tossing situation. And stay out of it, wait for the situation to become clearer before making a decision, and wait for the data to be released before trading.

Although doing so may miss some major market trends, when we are more confident, the chance of winning will be greater. Trading is not about betting on hope, but about making good decisions. Investing requires patience and cannot be decided by one's own luck.

As for the Federal Reserve, I expect interest rates to remain unchanged, and the focus should be on economic expectations and Powell's statement on the future interest rate path. If you have any ideas, you can click on my avatar to talk to me. #美联储利率决策即将公布 #非农就业人数高于预期