Tonight and tomorrow will start to usher in two "blockbuster" data:
The latest CPI data and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the relevant data may represent the next wave of trend indicators in the crypto market. In view of the current macroeconomic situation, the cryptocurrency industry does not seem to be too pessimistic.
Some fundamental indicators performed well:
1. In terms of on-chain data, the Ethereum user base is still growing, and the number of active addresses and the number of new addresses have reached historical relative highs 2. In terms of on-site funds, the holdings of stablecoins in exchanges have been greatly reduced, which may mean that market confidence has recovered 3. In terms of macroeconomics, the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index released on May 31 was 2.8%, similar to the consumer price index (CPI). It is expected that this data has been digested by the market. Although the market is under pressure from risk aversion in the short term, it is still a good opportunity to accumulate cryptocurrencies.
Positive events include:
Spot Ethereum ETF is launched, Biden and the countries striving for encryption are engaged in a verbal war
The recent market downturn is mainly due to the following factors:
1. US non-farm payrolls data exceeded expectations, US Treasury statistics rose, and expectations of interest rate cuts in July and September were ruled out; 2. French President Macron called for a surprise election, and the euro fell sharply against the US dollar, pushing the US dollar to strengthen and triggering risk aversion; 3. The market remained cautious before the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting; 4. Bitcoin ETF outflows of $640 billion on Monday may be traders reducing risks before important events.
The core concerns of the future market include:
1. When will the Fed start to cut interest rates, and the expectation gap between the 300,000 non-farm unemployment figures and the advance of the interest rate cut time 2. After the approval of the Ethereum ETF, the release of old Defi projects, and the market's overly pessimistic expectations of the Ethereum ETF 3. The expectation gap between the shift in Bitcoin ETF funds flowing into inflation and the fundamentals of the virtual asset market 4. The expectation gap between macroeconomic trends and actual market reactions. "This decline is a good opportunity to buy on dips"
