Recently, a piece of news has attracted widespread attention in the cryptocurrency market. The non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics both exceeded expectations. This "thunder" instantly triggered a sharp fluctuation in the price of Bitcoin, which has now fallen below the $70,000 mark. Faced with such market changes, investors can't help but start to wonder: Where will the future of Bitcoin go?

Careful investors may have noticed that Bitcoin has been in a state of sideways consolidation since March. This trend is strikingly similar to the situation after the gold ETF was approved for listing that year. At that time, the price of gold also experienced an 8-month consolidation period, but once it broke through the box, it opened a 5-year bull market. This historical case undoubtedly brought a hint of inspiration to the current Bitcoin market.

However, not everyone is optimistic about the future of Bitcoin. The Bitfinex team believes that the current round of Bitcoin bull market may come to an abrupt end at the end of the year and enter a long bear market. This view is in sharp contrast to the mainstream market expectations. We still need to further analyze which is right and which is wrong.

In fact, the Bitcoin halving event in 2024 is the key factor in determining its future trend. The so-called "halving" means that Bitcoin's block reward will be reduced by half every few years, which directly leads to a sharp decline in the supply of Bitcoin. According to the plan, in April 2024, Bitcoin will usher in a "gold-level" halving, when its asset hardness will surpass gold and become the "hardest" asset known on earth.

By analyzing the halving in 2024, we have reason to believe that the supply tightening effect this time may not have been fully "digested" by the market. After all, the current Bitcoin price is largely driven by the positive factors of the approval of the US spot ETF at the beginning of the year. Once the impact of the halving is fully manifested, whether Bitcoin will show unusual explosive power again is worth looking forward to.