Last week, the US non-farm payrolls data that exceeded expectations further reduced the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut in September. Ming Ge believes that this non-farm payrolls data is too watery and will most likely be corrected next time. At the same time, the Canadian and European central banks announced interest rate cuts last week, marking the arrival of an era of monetary easing and global liquidity is becoming abundant.

This week's focus data is the CPI to be released on Wednesday, which is the core factor that really determines the Fed's interest rate cut. Then at 2 a.m. on Thursday, the Fed will announce its interest rate decision. The probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged in June is close to pricing. The focus is on the subsequent dot plot and Powell's remarks. The dot plot will predict the Fed's interest rate path in the future. Currently, economists predict that two interest rate cuts and one interest rate cut this year account for 50% each. Ming Ge believes that this interest rate meeting will be a key turning point. Powell's remarks and dot plots will clearly let the market know the interest rate path in the future, because the Fed has maintained a high interest rate level for too long and it is unsustainable. In addition, Europe has already started to cut interest rates, which is also a driving force. Wednesday's CPI, Thursday's dot plot, and Powell's remarks are very important this week, which are related to future monetary policy, so there will be many needles in the second half of this week, so pay attention!

Personal opinion: Ming Ge believes that Wednesday's CPI will meet expectations, and the dot plot will continue to convey the expectation of two interest rate cuts this year. And because the CPI is in line with expectations, Powell's speech tends to be dovish. For reference only, not as an investment basis. If you have any questions, you can talk to Ming Ge! #非农就业人数高于预期 #美联储何时降息？