Analysts told RBC-Crypto what will happen to the Bitcoin rate from June 10 to June 16

Experts analyzed the market situation and explained how it could change in the coming week

On Sunday, June 9, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading around $69.3 thousand, its price has increased by about 2.5% over the past week. Experts analyzed the market situation and assessed the prospects for Bitcoin exchange rate movements over the next seven days.

“The situation remains favorable”

BitRiver financial analyst Vladislav Antonov

Since the beginning of the week, Bitcoin has traded up 2.5%, despite Friday's 2% loss. The market was in a fever after Friday's labor market report, but buyers did not let the price fall too much.

On June 3, the BTC/USDT pair increased by 1.54%, to $68,809. During the European session, the price rose to $70,288, followed by a sharp pullback to $68,500. Against the backdrop of weak economic data and signs of slowing inflation, expectations of monetary easing The Fed's credit policy supported Bitcoin.

On June 4, trading ended with Bitcoin rising by 2.51%, to $70,537. The growth in quotations was due to fundamental and technical factors, including expectations of a reduction in interest rates by the Federal Reserve.

On June 5, the BTC/USDT pair increased by 0.81%, to $71,108, the day's high was $71,758. Sales of part of the mined bitcoins by the mining company Marathon Digital put some pressure on the market.

On June 6, Bitcoin rose by 0.43%, closing at $70,799. Trading took place in the price range of $70,117 - $7,1700 amid stability in the American stock market.

On June 7, at the end of the day, the BTC/USDt pair closed in decline. Bitcoin fell by 2.04% to $69,365. The key event of the week was the publication of employment data in the United States, which had a significant impact on market dynamics on Friday.

The Bitcoin rate dropped sharply by $1 thousand after the publication of macro data in the USA
The May US jobs report showed steady growth in the labor market. The non-farm sector added 272,000 new jobs, above the previous 12-month average of 232,000 jobs.

The unemployment rate remained almost unchanged at 4.0%, and the total number of unemployed remained at 6.6 million. Average hourly wages in the private sector rose 0.4% to $34.91, up 4.1% year over year. The labor force participation rate was 62.5% and the employment rate was 60.1%, essentially unchanged from the previous month.

After carefully studying the report data, you can pay attention to several points that may be of interest to investors. Imbalance of employment growth in different sectors. While the overall job market is growing, there is a clear skew toward service industries—healthcare, professional services, leisure and hospitality. At the same time, the manufacturing sector (mining, construction, manufacturing) shows stagnation in the creation of new jobs. This could signal a possible slowdown in growth in these industries in the future.

Overall, the data signal continued strength in the labor market, but with possible risks of uneven growth across sectors, skills shortages and moderate wage dynamics, which could weigh on future economic performance.

The publication of the employment report caused a sharp reaction in the markets. The dollar strengthened significantly, while risk assets showed a decline. Investors expect that with employment and wages rising, the Federal Reserve may refrain from cutting interest rates until the end of 2024 as part of the fight against inflation.

BTC/USDT fell to $68,420 but closed at $69,365. Looking at five reports since the start of the year, the market was lukewarm on US job growth as attention was focused on spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on bitcoin. When strong indicators came out, Bitcoin remained sideways, and when it was weak, it shot up. Since there was no news on Bitcoin, crypto investors reacted to American statistics and the dynamics of the dollar index.

According to Coinglass, on June 7, $361 million worth of long positions on various tokens were liquidated, and $56.4 million on BTC.

NFP influences the market on Friday and partially on Monday. Then they forget about him for a month. Bitcoin, although it swung down due to the liquidation of investor positions, the situation for continued growth remains favorable for it. Despite the price decline, I would not be surprised if it returns to $71 thousand by the market open on Monday.

According to BitRiver estimates, next week we can expect continued growth for Bitcoin and a breakout of the $72,800-$73,800 resistance. Conditions for a rally are good. You need to break through to $75,000 for things to go smoothly.

"Almost succeeded"

Co-founder of the ENCRY Foundation Roman Nekrasov

In the week ending June 9, Bitcoin made an attempt to consolidate above $70 thousand, and almost succeeded. From June 4 to June 7, Bitcoin traded above this level and tested the next barrier at $7,1000. But on Friday, the market turned sharply, and Bitcoin returned to the range below $70,000.

On June 4, Bitcoin rose sharply from $69,080 to $70,800. The growth of Bitcoin in the middle of the week was facilitated by a wave of optimism regarding the imminent reduction of the key rate in the United States. For investors, the monetary policy of the American regulator remains the main factor influencing the state of the crypto market.

Market participants were encouraged by data on lower inflation, which were published earlier, and hoped that the unemployment report, expected on Friday, June 7, would show a decline in business activity and economic growth in the United States, which would push the US Federal Reserve to make two cuts in key rates to stimulate the economy. The rate jump was also helped by statistics on capital inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. On June 3, the funds recorded their second-largest net inflow of $887 million.

The influx of funds into Bitcoin funds lasted a record 18 days in a row
But the report on the situation in the American labor market, published on June 7, led many into confusion. On the one hand, the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the US increased more than expected - to 229 thousand instead of the expected 220 thousand. On the other hand, the number of jobs in the non-farm sector (NFP) in the US increased by 272 thousand in May against the expected 185 thousand, which indicates that the American economy is doing well even in conditions of a high key rate. This, in turn, reduced the likelihood of lower interest rates.

If before the publication of the report, participants estimated the probability of a rate cut at the September Fed meeting at 67%, then after the release of employment data, hopes dropped to 55%, according to surveys by FedWatch CME Group. The likelihood that there will be two key rate cuts in 2024 has also decreased, from 66% to 51%.

The crypto market immediately reacted with a sharp correction to unemployment and employment data. Bitcoin lost almost $3,000 in two hours and almost touched the $68,000 level, but rebounded and has been trading just above $69,000 since Friday.

Next week, you can expect increased volatility in Bitcoin and the entire crypto market around key events, which will also relate to the main factor in the possible growth or fall of the crypto market—monetary policy in the United States.

On June 12, the Federal Open Market Committee will meet to discuss the rate. Although none of the market participants is expecting a decision on reducing the key rate at the June meeting, everyone is hoping to hear signals that this process will begin in the foreseeable future.

On June 12, the consumer price index will also be published, which is considered one of the main indicators taken into account by the regulator when discussing the key rate. In May, the index fell 0.1 percentage point to 3.4%. But even such a slight decrease had a positive impact on the mood of bidders.

If consumer prices show a decline again, this could give a signal to the market that the key rate will begin to decline in the fall, which means an increase in appetite for risky assets. In this case, Bitcoin may regain the positions lost after the publication of the unemployment report and again overcome the $71,000 mark.

It is possible that in the case of this optimistic scenario, inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs will increase on a wave of optimism, and by the end of next week Bitcoin will approach $75,000.