Big disagreement: In the second half of the year, will the bull market or the bear market come?
The 2025 bull market and the 2026 bear market will be the standard model and the driving rhythm of the 4-year halving cycle. However, in each cycle, some people will criticize this as being too rigid.
In fact, this is also a big myth about this unusual halving cycle, namely the debate on the 2024 halving: Will the increase fade or will it be a super cycle? After all, this round of BTC's "gold halving" in April 2024 has greatly surpassed gold in the "asset hardness" of BTC, making it the hardest asset known on earth.
The $70,000 in March was given by the approval of the US spot ETF for listing at the beginning of the year. The supply tightening effect brought about by the halving in April may not have been reflected yet. In the past, each halving would bring the bull market to a happy peak in about a year and a half. Then it took about a year to "deleverage" and completely clean up the market. Precisely as if it was set in advance
Every time, someone tries to prove that BTC's 4-year cycle is just a coincidence of macro external factors, rather than the effect of halving internal factors. But every time, all attempts to disrupt BTC's endogenous cycle rhythm have failed.
