#非农就业人数高于预期

Today I saw several people in the group saying why the non-farm payrolls data caused the cryptocurrency market to fall so much?

The impact of non-farm payrolls data may still be a mystery. But in fact, this data can explain why the financial market - including our cryptocurrency market - has fluctuated sharply.

When the non-farm payrolls data is higher than market expectations, it is actually bad news, which may squeeze market performance. The logic behind this is that a high employment population means that we may have to expect the Fed to postpone the timetable for interest rate cuts, because non-farm payrolls and unemployment are key indicators that the Fed pays attention to. This provides Powell and the Fed with confidence to maintain monetary policy stability.

Excellent employment data will weaken the market's expectations for interest rate cuts. This is because excellent non-farm data may make the Fed believe that the US economy has not yet entered a recession and may achieve a "soft landing". In this case, the Fed may continue to wait and see and postpone the timing of interest rate cuts.

On the other hand, although the unemployment rate is slightly higher than expected, the market does not think it is important. In my opinion, the real influence lies in the non-farm payrolls data. If we want the Fed to cut interest rates in advance, then the employment data must be lower than expected. A low employment data may increase the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates.

Therefore, understanding the importance of non-farm payrolls is a key step in interpreting market dynamics. Even though this data is still vague to many people, it plays an important role in our understanding and prediction of market trends.