The US finally couldn't hold on any longer. The Federal Reserve announced that it would slow down the pace of balance sheet reduction to replace the US dollar interest rate cut. This is equivalent to sending a signal to the world that the US has completely failed in the Sino-US financial war. If it doesn't save the economy, it may be too late. In the past two years, the whole world has been involved in a vortex. The Russian-Ukrainian war and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict are just minor episodes on the surface, and the game hidden in the dark is more dangerous than the war itself. The US has been preparing for this century's harvest for a long time. As soon as the Russian-Ukrainian war broke out, the US announced that it would enter a cycle of interest rate hikes. Is this really a coincidence?
This was premeditated. They had planned it out long ago. The Americans' idea was to mess up Europe through war, and then to blow up the economies of various countries by raising interest rates. When the economies of various countries were no longer viable, American capital would come with a sickle. This combination of punches would be impossible to accomplish without several years of planning and layout. Raising interest rates is an old trick used by the Americans to reap the world. Benefiting from the hegemony of the US dollar, this method is used every time and it is satisfying. The wealth accumulated by Latin America, Europe, the Soviet Union and other countries over decades has been plundered one after another. No one can escape the sickle of the Americans.
Now the US has a debt of 35 trillion dollars, and the interest payment alone exceeds 1 trillion dollars every year. If they don't make a big move, the only outcome will be a default. By then, the US dollar will be completely abandoned by the world. Not only will the hegemony collapse, but it will also become a deadbeat that everyone wants to beat. So no matter who comes to power, they must not let this happen at all costs.
They looked around the world, east and west, and only we could satisfy their appetite. If they cut us off, maybe they could survive this crisis. So, a series of conspiracies began. In order to win the Sino-US financial war, the Americans made three moves in one go.
First, they instigated the Russian-Ukrainian war. After the conflict broke out, the relationship between Russia and Europe took a sharp turn for the worse. With the explosion of the natural gas pipeline, Russia's main artery to Europe was completely cut off. Europe was in chaos. Capital would definitely run to the strongest country for risk aversion. The United States immediately made the second move. The Federal Reserve started to raise interest rates, which was tantamount to telling the world that the United States is the safest and most reliable haven for funds. As expected, the United States relied on ten uninterrupted interest rate hikes to scoop up all the global capital. However, this round did not achieve the goal of harvesting us, so the third step was to cut off from us in the supply chain and lead the world's industrial transfer.
Then a series of phenomena happened. OEMs like Foxconn lined up to build factories in India and Vietnam. The United States is the world's largest consumer country, and China is the largest industrial producer. We have products but lack money, and the United States has money but lacks products. The two countries have completed the division. The United States can be said to have hurt the enemy 500 and hurt itself 1,000. The fire of high inflation has spread from the west to the east of the United States, and housing prices and commodity prices have all skyrocketed. As for our country, the export channel of goods has been artificially cut off, which has increased the risk of deflation.
The Americans made three moves in one go, but not only did they fail to achieve their goal of defeating us, but what they didn't expect was that our subsequent series of strategies to break the deadlock made them unable to resist.
First, if the east is dark, the west will be bright. If the Americans want to impose a blockade, we will find another way. We will expand export channels to the west through the Belt and Road Initiative and fill the vacant market after Western countries withdrew from Russia to the north. With these two steps, we have stabilized the export data. At the same time, we took the opportunity to accelerate the transfer and upgrading of the industrial structure and continue to expand our advantages in new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, smart phones and other industries. The Americans still don’t understand where the chips of Huawei Mate 60 come from?
Second, the US dollar is hegemonic and the world is suffering. We took the opportunity to push the RMB onto the international stage. The US interest rate hike has drained the US dollar reserves of various countries, but we have a large amount of US dollar foreign exchange. We lend US dollars to other countries with only one condition: they must pay back the money in RMB. Without 5,000 years of wisdom accumulation, we would never have thought of such a brilliant trick. Before the US could react, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Brazil, Russia and other energy and resource producing countries have successively announced that they will use RMB to settle trade.
Third, we are determined to sell off U.S. debt. In the 2008 global financial crisis, the U.S. asked us to take over U.S. debt to save the global economy. In the following three years, we bought more than 600 billion U.S. debt. Now, the U.S. is suppressing us while wanting us to increase our holdings of U.S. debt. This year, Yellen and Blinken visited China successively, basically with the same purpose. Under pressure, we not only stabilized, but also continued to sell off U.S. debt, selling 40% of our holdings in two years, which made the U.S. very upset.
After these three moves, the American harvest conspiracy has been completely defeated. Not only has the debt problem not been solved, but it has accelerated the upgrading of our industrial structure and promoted the internationalization of the RMB. In my opinion, we should send a thank-you letter to the Americans and give them a banner or something!
You have a plan, I have a ladder. The three moves of the old Americans were thrilling. We used three moves to crack them, and each move hit the weak spot. Next, the pressure was completely transferred to the old Americans. If the US dollar does not cut interest rates, I am afraid that the domestic banks in the United States will start to explode in succession. In May this year, the First Republic Bank of the United States went bankrupt. The US dollar has raised interest rates for two years. This is the sixth bank to sacrifice to the heaven. If it continues to hold on, there will probably be a seventh and eighth. But if the interest rate is cut, it is equivalent to completely admitting defeat. Not only will funds flee one after another, but domestic inflation will quickly pick up. It is really a dilemma with wolves in front and tigers behind. What to do? The Federal Reserve will start to slow down the pace of shrinking its balance sheet, at least to ease the domestic economic pressure.
The outcome of the financial war between China and the United States has been decided. The twilight of American hegemony has come. After getting through this hurdle, good days will follow. The Americans have already swallowed a chronic poison and will inevitably suffer from it. They no longer have any bargaining chips in their hands. All we have to do now is to prevent them from taking desperate actions.
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#美联储降息周期 $BTC
