Data released at 20:30 Beijing time on Friday showed that the United States added far more jobs in May than expected, easing concerns about a slowdown in the labor market and reducing the urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
The seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 272,000 in May, far exceeding the expected 185,000. The previous value was revised down from 175,000 to 165,000. The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4% in May for the first time since January 2022, higher than the expected 3.9%, ending the 27-month streak below 4%. The average hourly wage in the United States in May was also higher than expected, up 0.4% month-on-month and 4.1% year-on-year, while the market expected increases of 0.3% and 3.9% respectively.
After the data, swap markets no longer fully priced in a Fed rate cut by December. U.S. interest rate futures traders sharply reduced their bets on a Fed rate cut in September, now pricing in a 55% chance of a rate cut, compared with 70% before the data.
After the news was announced, both Bitcoin and gold prices plummeted during the day.
Let me tell you about my observation. To be honest, I was surprised when this data was released.
I didn’t expect that the US market employment data could remain so good beyond expectations.
Major domestic media have been predicting the decline of the United States for several years, and now they have been slapped in the face.
Today's economy is still strong. Apart from falsified data, the logical reasoning of normal economists is hard to believe.
The global economy is now stalling, with the US being the only one that is doing well.
The release of yesterday’s non-farm data disrupted the market’s rhythm in the short term. The market had originally expected the data to be lower than expected, and Bitcoin took advantage of the situation to break through the previous high.
The result was a 180-degree turn, which led to a consistent expectation in market sentiment, a flash crash with many selling and stampeding, which dealt a heavy blow to the market's bullish sentiment in the short term.
Will the unexpected non-farm data change the long-term trend of Bitcoin?
I don't think so.
The ECB's early interest rate cut proves that the high interest rate cycle button is beginning to loosen.
It is unlikely that the Federal Reserve will continue to hold on. The only thing we will see is a rate cut in July or September.
It is just a minor episode in the process of progress and will not have a decisive impact on the entire cycle.
So my friends, if you are trapped in the short term or have a full portfolio, you must believe in the power of cycles and don’t doubt your choices.
Hold on unwaveringly, or take advantage of negative adjustments to make adjustments.
A bull market is bound to be a winding road, not a straight highway. The narratives of Bitcoin ETF and Ethereum ETF in this round of bull market can be said to have opened up the ceiling for the development of the blockchain industry.
Such a historical event could not possibly end in such a flash.
Money doesn’t come easily. We have survived the bear market for several years, so a few more months won’t be a problem.
The times and economic cycles are on the side of the bulls. We firmly believe that we will eventually witness together the history of Bitcoin breaking through $100,000 or even $200,000.
The trend of this round of bull market is completely different from the past, and the differentiation is very serious. It is no longer the era when all coins can rise to the sky, and more and more professional players are entering.
If you choose the wrong path and direction for speculation, you may miss the opportunity to take advantage of the bull market.
