The Bank of Canada fired the first shot of interest rate cuts the day before yesterday, and Europe followed suit yesterday by announcing a 25 basis point rate cut. All the pressure of short-term rate cuts has come to Powell. In the past, the Americans led the team, and the younger brothers followed closely to cut interest rates. Considering the huge capital differences between economies, the younger brothers couldn't bear it and started to cut interest rates before the Americans.

The monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are basically consistent in the macroeconomic cycle. Although there were no surprises tonight, there was still a surprise. The unemployment rate in the United States in May was 4%, which was higher than the previous value and the expected value, which was completely consistent with the data that Powell said earlier that he would consider the possibility of a rate cut. However, the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in May that followed far exceeded the previous value and expectations, with the data released being 272,000 people, and the crypto market fell accordingly.

The impact of these two data, unemployment rate is a relatively macro data that can reflect the employment situation in the market, so logically, the 4% data is indeed in the range of discussion for the Fed to cut interest rates. However, the new high in non-agricultural employment represents the strength of the short-term market economy. Behind the data explosion, it means that interest rates can be cut now, but it is not too early and we have to wait.

I have carefully researched the reasons why the non-farm data far exceeded expectations, and the results are quite surprising: the US domestic non-farm employment decreased by 663K people, and foreign-born workers (illegal immigrants) increased by 441K people. The good situation was ruined by the line.

This is one of the reasons why, when the impact of short-term non-agricultural employment is greater than that of unemployment rate, the price can be quickly withdrawn. Otherwise, according to the past, the hourly line will fall for three consecutive times this time, and if nothing unexpected happens, the data of 27.2 will definitely be revised down next month.

The net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETF has also exploded recently. The net inflow was 6,915 bitcoins, about 488 million US dollars, the day before yesterday, and the net inflow was 3,035 bitcoins, about 215 million US dollars yesterday, which is still huge. What needs to be paid attention to here is that in addition to the strong inflow of BlackRock IBIT, GBTC and ARKB have seen huge outflows. ARK has also recently suspended the application for Ethereum spot ETF. External sources say that this is related to their failure in the competition for management fees.

The net inflow data of Bitcoin spot ETFs for 18 consecutive trading days is the objective reason why Bitcoin cannot go through a deep and strong decline at this stage. The volume of buying determines the bottom and upper limit. In any case, it is not important when Bitcoin will rise next. What is important is that we are sure that it will rise again, and we still have Bitcoin chips after it goes up.

In the past few days when the market has been falling sideways, I have studied the situation of the A-share market. It is not an exaggeration to describe the bloodbath in small-cap stocks. Stocks with a unit price of 5 yuan have almost plunged by more than 30%, and the market index has returned to the original point of 3,000 points in April. The stocks that have performed relatively well, except for some state-owned stocks, are those related to AI. This market is really difficult.

Someone made an analogy today about the data. Nvidia plus Apple plus Microsoft have already challenged the entire A-share market. Not only the market value, but also the daily trading volume is basically the same. The capital market speaks with data. Nvidia is the second largest in the world. After Alibaba, the A-share market may have a smaller and smaller chance of breaking out. This aspect should be deeply reflected.

Based on recent data, I will make a simple macro view in the future. First of all, regarding the topic of the new high of the future market of Bitcoin, I personally think that between the new high and the high-level fluctuation, the possibility of high-level fluctuation is greater, and only the high-level fluctuation conforms to the basic logic of the current market liquidity shortage. The ending of the shrinking volume and pulling the market is likely to be the end of the pullback and liquidation leverage.

Secondly, there are sectors that can be watched in the short and medium term. As mentioned above, buying when no one is interested is the best way to buy at the bottom. Some of the old blocks have indeed shown a tendency of small-cycle abnormal movements. BCH has risen from 460 points to 520 points in the short term, and is expected to continue to rise; doge's capital inflow is relatively obvious, and it is in the late stage of bottoming out; ordi directly broke through the trend pressure level, breaking through the 60-point high, and has risen 50% from the most recent round of buying.

For new tracks, let's focus on VX coin so far this year. Although the vc coin is very weak this year, if the adjustment period reaches more than three months, it will basically follow the high sideways trend of this round of big cake and it will not be difficult to follow its own trend. There are too many options here. If you need to ask, just leave a message in the comment area.

The evening data is not very ideal. As the weekend approaches, the market is expected to return to a low liquidity state, and there is a high probability that there will be no unexpected fluctuations. In terms of news, pay attention to the CPI data next Wednesday. If the CPI is positive, it will really soar.

BTC: Bitcoin has a long downward trend due to the news in the evening, but the volume is not large and the pullback is fast, indicating that the short-term market selling pressure is still small. In addition, the Bitcoin ETF data and the short-term market long-short ratio that have lasted for a period of time are the driving forces that support Bitcoin to maintain the current price and slowly rise. The structure of Bitcoin has not changed much, and the support level looks at upward bullish shocks. The current support is 70,200 points, and the pressure level is 72,000 points. The high-level shock market is easy to reach a new high, and low-absorbing is the main focus.

ETH: Ethereum's trend is linked to Bitcoin. Overall, the bullish trend of the daily line has not changed much. The bottom strong support is 3750 points and the trend support is 3860.

BNB: The short-term volume is too strong, the market is firmly above the five-day line, and the trend will continue to reach new highs in the short term.

ORDI: The daily line continues to strengthen in the short term, and the trend support has basically stabilized, with profits exceeding 50%. There will be a small adjustment in the short and medium term highs, and the space is not expected to be particularly large. Those who have not made a profit of more than 50% will not be considered for the time being. The medium-term market is expected to continue to be strong.

JTO: A wave of linkage returned to the 3.5-point trend support, continue to pay attention to the first wave.

JUP: For those who entered near the structural support of 1.0 points, continue to hold with small profits.

ONDO: The leader of the RWA sector, the technical side is slowly moving up along the five-day line, and the bottom trend support is around 1.34 points. Those who paid attention to it in the past few days should continue to hold it.

Finally, stay away from leverage and stock up on spot goods! ​​​#非农就业人数高于预期 #第55期新币挖矿IO #bnb历史新高 #山寨季何时到来？ #美国4月核心PCE指标显示通胀放缓 $BTC