Today's data is also very tangled. On one hand, the number of employed people has exploded. On the other hand, the unemployment rate has reached 4%. It has also reached a new high in more than 20 months.
The increase in employment data proves that the economy is very strong, and the new high unemployment rate also makes the US economy likely to enter a recession. It is very tangled.
At present, the employment statistics of the United States include illegal immigrants. So there may be a very large gap in the data. Just like the data gap between March and April is very large. The gap between the non-agricultural data in April and the non-agricultural data in May announced today is also very large. For illegal immigrants, if the government controls them, they will be cut very quickly, so the employment population data may not be greatly affected.
On the other hand, the unemployment rate is currently the most important thing for the Federal Reserve. If the unemployment rate continues to rise, the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates to stimulate. But there are many employed people at present. So it is very tangled.
In addition to this year's US election, there are more uncertainties. So the accumulation of energy by shocks may be the greatest probability.
The market is very tangled at present. It is similar to my previous judgment. It is a trend of great shocks.
