Tonight is the non-agricultural data, two key points, three data, but in fact, for most friends, it is enough to pay attention to the unemployment rate. The previous value of the unemployment rate was 3.9%, and the market expectation was 3.9%. Then

1. When the final result is higher than 3.9% (such as 4% or higher), then the market interpretation will be positive, because it is directly in line with Powell's statement in the last interest rate meeting that an unemployment rate of more than 4% will reconsider (strengthen) the expectation of interest rate cuts.

2. When the final result is less than 3.9% (such as 3.8% or lower), then the market interpretation will be negative, because it does not meet the observation that the Fed wants to cool down employment, and prolongs the probability of the Fed entering a rate cut cycle.

3. When the final result is equal to 3.9%, although it is in line with expectations, it does not meet market expectations. The market hopes to cut interest rates earlier, but the unchanged unemployment rate will still disappoint more investors, but even if it is disappointing, it will not reach the level of "2".

The other two data are the annual wage rate and the monthly wage rate. The lower the better. However, as long as the non-agricultural unemployment rate is high enough, the impact of wages will be reduced. Of course, there is also the number of jobs, but why I don’t think it is the key number, because the current problem of illegal and legal immigration is too big. It is not ruled out that the employment rate will increase due to immigration. If you look at the employment rate, you also need to look at the labor participation rate, which is too complicated.

After all, for the market, understanding is simple. What the Fed likes is what the market likes. It’s that simple.

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