The Bank of Canada took the lead in cutting interest rates. Has the horn of the bull market climax sounded?

/1. Technical school: Macro information guides the market, waiting for BTC to break through the key position

/2. Macro school: The independent narrative of the currency circle is missing, the Bank of Canada cuts interest rates first, and the Federal Reserve may follow closely

/3. Data school: The first half of the bull market may have ended, and market data has become a key factor in the second half

————————————————————

1/. According to MVRV observations, the bull market is now more than halfway through. The first half of the big pie is still a satisfactory answer. Let us look forward to the wonderful performance in the second half

2/. The small non-agricultural data is in line with market expectations and recorded the smallest increase since January 2024. This is good news for the market. Of course, "good" is just to echo the Fed's expectations of an increase in unemployment. But the final game of this week's data is still on Friday's unemployment rate.

3/、The core problem now is that the sentiment of the cryptocurrency circle has not risen. There is no independent narrative, no independent market, and it is still following the US stock market. In this way, macro data and Fed policies have become more important. June 7-10 are very important, including non-farm data, unemployment rate, Nvidia stock split, and Apple conference. ​​​

4/、No matter how the fundamentals/news change, when the BTC price successfully breaks through $72,000, the next wave of violent rise will officially begin!

5/、The new wave of Bitcoin ETF inflows is coming!

6/、Bnb's target market value should be 300-500 billion, with a deflation mechanism. At present, FDV is 1/4 of ETH, so if Ethereum reaches 10,000, Bnb will be 2500U

7/、If you want to short liquidity-sensitive assets: wait until after the 13th and see. There were too many risk-positive events before. Non-farm data is expected to be weak, FOMC is dovish, June bond issuance has just started, Apple WDCC meeting...

8/, Pie is bullish, first look at the previous high of 74,000, then look at 80,000.

9/, the market has always regarded the Bank of Canada as the weather vane of the Federal Reserve. This time, the Bank of Canada started to raise interest rates before the Federal Reserve in the 22-year interest rate hike cycle. It is also because since the establishment of the North American Free Trade Area in the 1990s, the United States and Canada have been highly interconnected and have no capital controls. The interest rates of the two countries are basically inseparable. So normally, the policy interest rate trends of the two countries will eventually "go with the flow", it is just a matter of time.

10/. The length of the oscillation time often corresponds to the strength of the subsequent trend, because it has a mitigating effect on the supply and demand divergence in the market; If the price unfortunately chooses to go down in the end, there is a chance to directly end the bull market; Fortunately, it seems that the probability of it eventually choosing to go up is higher at present

11/. The independent market in the cryptocurrency circle is getting weaker and weaker, which is not a good thing. To some extent, it represents the decline of speculative sentiment and the retreat of hot money. After the ADP data is released, the cryptocurrency circle will follow the direction of the US stock market, and the increase is weaker than that of the US stock market. This is the biggest problem since March. 1. Too many people looking at the data caused the rush 2. The impact of the lack of main narrative in the cryptocurrency circle is greater than the impact of the total amount of funds and the rhythm of water release

12/. The market has shown signs of activity under the stimulation of data, but it is far from enough. At present, the unemployment rate on Friday and the big non-agricultural data are still needed to continue to consolidate the positive sentiment. The real opportunity for copycats can only be to wait until the weekend.