Trump was convicted of 34 felonies, all of which were found guilty. A full analysis of the impact of the incident

Donald Trump was found guilty of all 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in a Manhattan criminal trial, becoming the first former president in U.S. history to be convicted. This has injected an explosive and unpredictable new variable into the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

Trump has weathered two impeachments and countless other scandals, but still leads Biden in most polls.

1. Is Trump’s ruling an opportunity for Biden?

Presidential campaign strategists from both parties agree that the guilty verdict presents a new opportunity for Biden, whose lackluster performance and declining poll numbers have raised concerns among many Democratic lawmakers and party officials.

Michael Taylor, Biden campaign communications director, said in a statement Thursday that the result shows that "no one is above the law" and that Trump "has always mistakenly believed that he would never be punished for breaking the law for personal gain." But Biden also acknowledged that the legal system alone cannot prevent Trump from taking back the White House in November.

"There's only one way to keep Donald Trump from the White House: at the ballot box," Biden said in a fundraising pitch.

Trump's felony conviction provides Biden with an opportunity to shake up the race by refocusing voters' attention on Trump's behavior.

“It would be a dereliction of duty not to rely solely on the verdict,” said Alex Conant, a Republican strategist and a veteran of Marco Rubio’s 2016 presidential campaign. “I hope President Biden gives a major speech and that Democratic officials incite the country and do everything they can to make the race a referendum on Trump.”

2. The story of Trump and the adult actress

American adult film star Stormy Daniels said she and Trump had an affair since 2006 and he has tried to keep it low-key ever since.

Daniels is her stage name. Her real name is Stephanie Clifford. She was born in Louisiana in 1979. She was an adult film actress before she began directing and writing in 2004. Daniels said that she had sex with Trump once at a hotel during a celebrity golf tournament held in Lake Tahoe, California in July 2006. Trump had married Melania Trump in 2005.

Trump has vehemently denied having an affair with Daniels.

Because she was worried about her family's safety, Daniels accepted a "hush money" from Trump's personal lawyer.

Trump's personal attorney Michael Cohen also confirmed that he had paid Daniels $130,000 privately.

Daniels pointed out that she and Trump's lawyer Cohen signed the so-called "hush money" document shortly before the election, but Trump did not sign it, so it is legally invalid.

Will voters’ attitudes change?

Trump sought to use the verdict to galvanize hardcore supporters, most of whom believed his claims that the prosecution was politically motivated and aimed at keeping him out of power.

“The real judgment will be made on November 5 by the people, who know what happened here,” Trump said in brief comments to reporters outside the courtroom.

Trump used a similar strategy last year, capitalizing on Republican anger over his indictment to pressure his primary rival to drop out of the race, though it's unclear whether it will work in the general election.

James Carville, a senior strategist for Bill Clinton’s 1992 presidential campaign, said the most important element of a guilty verdict is that it was delivered by an impartial jury — and therefore is likely to resonate with marginal and undecided voters who typically ignore partisan messengers.

“Trump can’t win with his people alone,” Carville said. “And it’s certainly going to have a dampening effect on everybody else.”

The investigation conducted before the verdict showed that Trump will indeed pay a price for the jury's conclusion that Trump intentionally falsified business records during the 2016 presidential campaign to hide his extramarital affair with adult film actress Stormy Daniels from voters.

A May 23 Marquette Law School poll of registered voters found that Biden would lead a national head-to-head matchup with Trump by 4 percentage points if the verdict was "guilty," while Trump would lead by 6 percentage points if the verdict was "not guilty."

Whether the race changes may depend more on Biden than on Trump. At least some strategists in both parties expect Trump’s newfound felony status to have a lasting impact — if Biden and his campaign can highlight the conviction to a population that is mostly unconcerned about national affairs.

There are also practical issues facing Trump’s campaign, which has been hoping to increase travel to battleground states without being constrained by court schedules. His sentencing is scheduled for July 11, four days before the Republican National Convention opens in Milwaukee.

Evidence of internal strife has emerged since the verdict, with Trump surrogates clashing on social media with former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, now the Republican candidate in the state's U.S. Senate race, after Hogan urged Americans to "respect the verdict and the legal process."

The designation of “felon” will unsettle low-inclination, low-information voters, who are the reason Trump is currently ahead.

Although the Trump campaign has publicly claimed that it does not care about the trial, Trump has privately told allies and advisers that he does not want to be a felon.

Trump’s response

Prosecutors say Trump directed Cohen to pay adult film star Stormy Daniels $130,000 before the 2016 election to stop her from going public with what she said were sexual encounters between them. Prosecutors argue Trump reimbursed Cohen for hush money and that several payments for "legal services" were recorded on the company's books. Trump's team claims the money was actually for legal work.

Trump has denied all charges and called the trial "rigged."

Trump also called on donors to contribute to his embattled presidential campaign.

"They searched my home, arrested me, took my picture, and now they just convicted me!" one fundraising appeal read. "I'm asking for 10 million Trump Patriots to donate before the day is over."

Trump's fundraising operation has notched several wins in recent weeks, including $76 million raised in April, $25 million more than Biden raised that month. He has also received support from billionaire Miriam Adelson and Blackstone Group CEO Steve Schwarzman, two of the Republican Party's largest donors. Trump also raised $40 million in his Texas campaign, much of it from oil and gas executives, including Continental Resources Chairman Harold Hamm.

5. Responses from traditional finance and cryptocurrency markets

Trump's ruling has yet to have an impact on Wall Street.

From around-the-clock currency trading to after-hours stock trading, most financial assets (with the exception of shares in Trump Media and Technology Group) remained largely stable after a New York jury found Trump guilty of all 34 felony counts.

But the question for traders now is how the decision will affect markets that have already begun preparing for the 2024 U.S. election - in which Trump is all but certain to face President Joe Biden.

“The stock market has historically been immune to domestic political turmoil,” said Ed Yardeni, founder of Yardeni Research. “However, it is clear that the political atmosphere will be more turbulent following the Trump verdict, which could exacerbate stock market volatility.”

Compared with the stable performance of traditional financial assets, crypto assets obviously react more dramatically.

The price of TRUMP plummeted from approximately $15 before the verdict was read to $11.27 shortly after the verdict, a drop of nearly 25% in just over an hour.

Trump concept coins with smaller market capitalizations are also currently falling sharply. MAGA Hat (MAGA) fell 16% in one hour, Super Trump (STRUMP) fell 16% in one hour, and MAGA VP (MVP) fell 22% in one hour.

Memecoins inspired by Trump’s main rival and current U.S. President Joe Biden rallied following the verdict. The largest memecoin by market cap, Jeo Boden (BODEN), rose 12% in an hour.

VI. Other issues that deserve attention

1. What happens if Trump is convicted?

The next step will be sentencing by Judge Juan Merschamp, which is scheduled for July 11. That's just days before the July 15 Republican National Convention, where the party will formally nominate Trump as its presidential candidate for the Nov. 5 election. Merschamp said Trump could remain at large until sentencing.

Defendants convicted of felonies are usually sentenced to prison, but the law does not require them to serve time. Especially since the former president is 77 years old, a first-time offender and has no criminal record, it is necessary to give him a lenient sentence. Trump may also be required to pay some form of financial penalty.

2. How long might Trump spend in jail?

Each count is a Class E felony, carrying a sentence of one and a half to four years. Because Trump was convicted of multiple counts, he can be sentenced to serve multiple sentences concurrently, meaning the former president will serve all of his sentences at the same time.

3. Can Trump appeal?

Yes, he immediately challenged the verdict, saying the fight was "far from over." But he could only appeal to the state of New York after the verdict was announced.

Trump may eventually ask the U.S. Supreme Court to intervene.

4. Where might Trump serve his sentence?

It is not yet clear where Trump will serve his sentence, but the U.S. Secret Service, which is responsible for protecting current or former presidents, has met with federal, state and city officials to discuss the possibility of Trump being imprisoned.

If Trump is sentenced to a year or less, he would likely serve his sentence at New York's Rikers Island prison, which has seven prisons. Allen Weisselberg, 76, the former chief financial officer of the Trump Organization, who recently pleaded guilty to perjury, is serving a five-month sentence in the prison's medical unit.

5. Does Trump’s conviction mean he can’t run for re-election?

Trump can still run for public office. The U.S. Constitution has few qualifications for running for office, including no restrictions on character or criminal record.

6. How will this ruling affect the 2024 election?

It is unclear how his conviction will affect the outcome of the election. But if Trump wins, the United States will have a convicted felon as head of state for the first time - a fact that is not uncommon elsewhere in the world. Trump has compared himself to the late South African leader Nelson Mandela, who was imprisoned for 27 years for opposing the apartheid regime.

7. If Trump is re-elected, can he pardon himself?

If Trump is re-elected, he could theoretically direct the Justice Department to drop the cases.

Data from blockchain prediction market Polymarket shows that traders still expect Trump to defeat Biden in the November election. Even after the verdict, Trump is still far ahead - with a 56% chance of winning, while Biden has a 38% chance.