When the Fed cuts interest rates, the bull market will end. If the pace is fast, I expect to start cutting interest rates in the second half of this year, that is, in the fourth quarter. As of now, the United States has to pay about more than two trillion US dollars in interest every year. If interest rates continue to rise, its debt will grow sharply. Once it cannot repay the interest, it will trigger a large-scale debt default. After several years of continuous interest rate hikes, the US economy has been in trouble, and many banks have encountered problems one after another. This is not only because it cannot maintain high interest rates, but also related to the attempt to reap overseas Chinese assets through the Asian subdivision bill.

However, the current economic situation in the United States is only a superficial phenomenon. The Federal Reserve will soon start a cycle of interest rate cuts. The global economic situation is grim, and non-performing assets have depreciated significantly. The decline in housing prices is also related to the funds lent to Chinese developers after the interest rate cut, and then the withdrawal of Chinese capital through interest rate hikes, which has led to a decline in Chinese asset prices.

Despite the economic difficulties, this also breeds new hope. Recently, Sino-US relations have eased, such as the visit of US Treasury Secretary Yellen and Foreign Secretary Lincoln to China last month. This can be seen as a signal that the US dollar is about to cut interest rates, and they hope to negotiate with us and get some tolerance when cutting interest rates. As the history of the Three Kingdoms shows, when two armies are at war, it is often the weaker side that sends envoys to seek peace first. Therefore, interest rate cuts are an inevitable trend.