Macroeconomic indicators teaching: Fed net liquidity

In addition to the previously mentioned US dollar index and US bond yields: (see previous posts)

The financial liquidity indicator is also very important. Net liquidity = Federal Reserve liabilities - TGA - reverse repurchase. This indicator is used to predict the trend of the S&P 500 index in the next two weeks and is more useful for reference.#内容挖矿

In the past 2023, it was basically exactly the same:

From March to mid-July, U.S. stocks rose, corresponding to the Federal Reserve's "balance sheet expansion" releasing funds.

From mid-July to September, the U.S. stock market corrected, corresponding to the fiscal issuance of bonds to replenish the TGA and recover funds.

From October to April 24, the U.S. stock market reached a new high, and the corresponding reverse repurchase accelerated the release of funds: TGA replenishment was completed and no more funds were withdrawn.
From May 2024 to date, the U.S. stock market continues to hit new highs, and the Federal Reserve's "balance sheet expansion" releases funds.

Look back #BTC☀️ The trend is actually exactly the same. The most recent decline was on April 10, when BTC fell from 71,000+ to 57,000 points, a 23% retracement. See the figure below.

Recently, many partners have asked how to control their positions and dynamically adjust their positions according to macro data indicators! Try to achieve small retracements and big returns!

There are also many macroeconomic indicators for overall reference. I will list them one by one in the future. If you like them, please like and forward them! Your support is our greatest motivation. Thank you.

On March 4 this year, we made a public risk warning! Pay attention to the risks 14 to 28 days before the BTC halving, which was in early April, when the BTC price was around 71,000!

The reasons include macro factors and BTC halving on-chain data factors! Overall, the practicality is good! If you control the position at 71,000 and change U, it will be very comfortable to buy the bottom in early May!

On May 1st, we will open the market to help you buy at the bottom. The more the price drops below 60,000, the more you buy. The core confidence also comes from the improvement of macro data, the sufficient release of market risks, and the improvement of liquidity.

So have you learned it? The peak of this round of big cycle is expected to be around Q2-Q3 of 2025. We will lead more "100x Challenge Partners" to escape the peak and maintain the profits of the bull market.