Macroeconomic view of the world:

US:

International crude oil prices fell below the strong range of the $80 bull market, and US stocks fell emotionally before the market due to the influence of energy stocks. Monday's manufacturing data cooled the US economy, and the market began to brew expectations that the Federal Reserve would complete two interest rate cuts this year. At present, the interest rate cut in September may increase by 50%, and the possibility in November will increase further.

The manufacturing data has declined. The monthly rate data of US factory orders in April released at 22:00 today can interpret more useful interest rate data. The previous value of US factory orders in April was 0.8% (1.6 before correction), and the expected value was 0.6%. If the data release results meet expectations or are higher than expectations, or the same as the previous value, it will be good news. The manufacturing PMI data in April remained strong, while the manufacturing industry declined in May. As long as the value in April is not higher than the previous value, there will be fewer orders in May. It will help alleviate some inflationary pressures.

Manufacturing is cooling down, and international energy is declining. As long as the domestic crude oil supply in the US stock market is not tight, energy prices will also fall in May. The rest will focus on the service industry data. Once the service industry also cools down, combined with the unemployment rate continuing to remain at 3.9% this week, the market will push the Federal Reserve to talk about interest rate cuts.

The US dollar index rebounded after falling below 104 during the day, and currently maintains an overall volatile downward trend. The US Treasury yield remains at 4.369%, breaking the sensitive range of 4.5%, which will release more active sentiment in the risk market. The US Treasury yield has continued to rise for a week.

Asia:

If not for A shares, the Hang Seng Index maintained a small increase, and the Nikkei index closed with a decline.

The RMB strengthened against the US dollar and weakened slightly against the Japanese yen.

In India, stocks plummeted due to the reversal of the election voting results, and the market value evaporated by 386 billion US dollars. As one of the hottest markets in the world in the past two years, the Indian stock market, whether the short-term plunge will trigger more financial crises is currently unknown, but the reversal of the election data, in addition to being shocking, also makes people feel that its internal struggle is still relatively fierce. The result is unknown, and the stock market will suffer the brunt.

Europe: Although the European Central Bank is preparing to cut interest rates for the first time this week, and the market expects Europe to cut interest rates quarterly in the future, strong economic data and hawkish remarks are trying to change expectations of interest rate cuts. The market expects that there may be more variables in the quarterly interest rate cuts in the euro zone.

International gold fell again after hitting the 2350 position again during the day. Pay attention to the recent gold market. Its price has fluctuated many times in the 2300-2350 range. The long-short game in this range is strong, and the background involves a wide range. We will not elaborate on it one by one.

International crude oil prices fell below $80, but the timing of the decline in crude oil prices was strange. Under the more tense situation in the Middle East, crude oil prices did not rise but fell. At the same time, with the international public opinion that OPEC+ said that more offshore crude oil and shale oil production may lead to oversupply in the global market. Although the production cuts have been continued, the demand market is still tight. OPEC's move is really leading the market to cool down, which is in sharp contrast to the tense geopolitical situation. Don't forget to speculate here and wait and see.

Crypto market:

Bitcoin futures are quoted at 69,370, and continue to maintain a positive premium of 700 points with the spot. At this stage, the futures market has a strong bullish sentiment, which is also very consistent with the atmosphere of this week's macro data. However, can Bitcoin break through 72,000 this week with the help of sentiment? This still needs to wait until the stimulation of Friday's data.

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