If Bitcoin follows the trajectory of previous post-halving bull runs, it could reach a cycle peak of $130,000 to $150,000 in late August to early September next year. The most recent Bitcoin halving event on April 20, which saw mining rewards reduced by 50% every four years, and the halving date was "almost perfectly symmetrical in past bull cycles," and historically, the date of this Bitcoin halving is almost in the middle of a bull market.

The last Bitcoin bull run began about 16 months before the halving on May 11, 2020, and the cycle ended about 18 months after the halving. The previous two halvings—July 9, 2016 and November 28, 2012—followed the same pattern. “If this sequence continues, the next bull cycle high should occur in late August, early September 2025.

“No single analytical method is foolproof” when guessing Bitcoin’s cycle highs, but past highs have followed a similar growth pattern, and if this continues, I expect the bull market high “to be in the $130,000 to $150,000 range.”

Bitcoin’s chances of breaking out mark Dec. 17, 2022 as the start of the current bull run. At the time, BTC was trading around $16,800, but has since risen more than 300% to trade at $67,882, according to Cointelegraph Markets Pro.

However, Bitcoin has fallen from its all-time high of $73,679 on March 14, and there is a 25% chance that Bitcoin has already reached its bull market top, as each bull cycle’s gains decline relative to the previous one.

If BTC fails to reach a new all-time high and falls below $55,000, I would raise the probability that the cryptocurrency will experience "exponential decay." $BTC $ETH