Donald Trump was found guilty of all 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in a Manhattan criminal trial, becoming the first former president in U.S. history to be convicted. The verdict injected an explosive and unpredictable new variable into the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
1. Is Trump’s verdict an opportunity for Biden?
Presidential campaign strategists from both parties agreed that the guilty verdict provides a new opportunity for Biden, even though his lackluster performance and declining poll numbers have raised concerns within the Democratic Party. Michael Taylor, Biden campaign communications director, said in a statement Thursday that the result shows that "no one is above the law" and that Trump "has always mistakenly believed that he would never be punished for breaking the law for personal gain."
"There's only one way to keep Donald Trump from the White House: at the ballot box," Biden said in a fundraising pitch. A guilty verdict gives Biden an opportunity to shake up the race by refocusing voters' attention on Trump's behavior.
"It would be a dereliction of duty not to rely solely on the verdict," said Republican strategist Alex Conant. "I hope President Biden gives a major speech and Democratic officials incite the country and do everything they can to make the race a referendum on Trump."
2. The story of Trump and the adult actress
Stormy Daniels, an American adult film actress, said she and Trump began having an affair in 2006 and has been trying to keep it low-key. Daniels, whose real name is Stephanie Clifford, was born in Louisiana in 1979. She said she had sex with Trump once at a hotel during a celebrity golf tournament held in Lake Tahoe, California in July 2006.
Trump strongly denied having an extramarital affair with Daniels. Fearing for the safety of her family, Daniels accepted a "hush money" from Trump's personal lawyer. Trump's personal lawyer Michael Cohen also confirmed that he paid Daniels $130,000 privately.
3. Will voters’ attitudes change?
Trump sought to use the verdict to galvanize hardcore supporters, most of whom believe his claims that the prosecution was politically motivated and aimed at keeping him out of power.“The real verdict will be made on November 5th by the people, and they know what happened here,” Trump told reporters outside the courtroom.
Trump used a similar strategy last year, capitalizing on Republican anger over his indictment to pressure his primary rival to drop out of the race, though it's unclear whether it will work in the general election.
James Carville, a senior strategist for Bill Clinton's 1992 presidential campaign, said the most important element of a guilty verdict is that it was handed down by an impartial jury and therefore could resonate with marginal and undecided voters who typically ignore partisan messengers. "Trump can't win with his people alone," Carville said. "And it's certainly going to have a dampening effect on everyone else."
Pre-verdict investigations suggest Trump will indeed pay a price for the jury's conclusion that he intentionally falsified business records during the 2016 presidential campaign to hide his extramarital affair with adult film actress Stormy Daniels from voters.
A May 23 Marquette Law School poll of registered voters found that Biden would lead a national head-to-head matchup with Trump by 4 percentage points if the verdict was "guilty," while Trump would lead by 6 percentage points if the verdict was "not guilty."
Trump’s response
Prosecutors allege Trump directed Cohen to pay Daniels $130,000 before the 2016 election to stop her from going public with their sexual encounters. Prosecutors argue Trump reimbursed Cohen for the hush money and that several payments for "legal services" were recorded on the company's books. Trump's team claims the money was actually for legal work.
Trump has denied all charges and called the trial "rigged." He also called on donors to contribute to his troubled presidential campaign. "They searched my home, arrested me, took my picture, and now they just convicted me!" read one fundraising appeal.
5. Responses from traditional finance and cryptocurrency markets
Trump's verdict has yet to have an impact on Wall Street. From around-the-clock currency trading to after-hours stock trading, most financial assets (except for shares of Trump Media and Technology Group) remained largely stable after a New York jury found Trump guilty of all 34 felony counts. But for traders, the question now is how the decision will affect markets that have begun to prepare for the 2024 US election - in which Trump is almost certain to face President Joe Biden.
“The stock market has historically been immune to domestic political turmoil,” said Ed Yardeni, founder of Yardeni Research. “However, it is clear that the political atmosphere will be more turbulent following the Trump verdict, which could exacerbate stock market volatility.”
Compared with the stable performance of traditional financial assets, crypto assets obviously reacted more violently. The price of TRUMP plummeted from about $15 before the verdict was read to $11.27 shortly after the verdict, a drop of nearly 25% in just over an hour.
VI. Other issues that deserve attention
1. What happens if Trump is convicted?
The next step will be sentencing by Judge Juan Mersch, which is scheduled for July 11. This is just days before the Republican National Convention on July 15, when the Republican Party will formally nominate Trump as the presidential candidate for the November 5 election. Mersch said Trump can remain at large until the sentencing.
Defendants convicted of felonies are usually sentenced to prison, but the law does not require them to serve time. Especially since the former president is 77 years old, a first-time offender and has no criminal record, it is necessary to give him a lenient sentence. Trump may also be required to pay some form of financial penalty.
2. How long might Trump be in jail?
Each count is a Class E felony, with a sentence of 1.5 to 4 years. Since Trump was convicted of multiple counts, he can be sentenced to serve multiple sentences at the same time, which means the former president will serve all his sentences at the same time.
3. Can Trump appeal?
Yes, he immediately challenged the verdict, saying the fight is "far from over." But he can only appeal to New York State after the verdict. Trump may eventually ask the U.S. Supreme Court to intervene.
4. Where might Trump serve his sentence?
It is not clear where Trump will serve his sentence, but the U.S. Secret Service, which is responsible for protecting current and former presidents, has met with federal, state and city officials to discuss the possibility of Trump going to prison. If Trump is sentenced to a year or less, he may serve his sentence at Rikers Island Prison in New York, which has seven prisons. Allen Weisselberg, 76, the former chief financial officer of the Trump Organization, who recently pleaded guilty to perjury, is currently serving a five-month sentence in the medical unit of the prison.
5. Does Trump’s conviction mean he can’t run for reelection?
Trump can still run for public office. The U.S. Constitution has few qualifications for running for office, including no restrictions on character or criminal record.
6. How will this ruling affect the 2024 election?
It is unclear how his conviction will affect the outcome of the election. But if Trump wins, the United States will have a convicted felon as head of state for the first time - a fact that is not uncommon elsewhere in the world. Trump has compared himself to the late South African leader Nelson Mandela, who was imprisoned for 27 years for opposing the apartheid regime.
7. If Trump is re-elected, can he pardon himself?
If Trump is re-elected, he could theoretically instruct the Justice Department to drop the cases. Data from blockchain prediction market Polymarket shows that traders still expect Trump to defeat Biden in the November election. Even after the verdict, Trump is still far ahead - with a 56% chance of winning, while Biden has a 38% chance.
