In this cycle, only memecoin gamblers seem to be able to make money. $WIF is a little better, and the price fluctuations of $PEPE are actually quite large, and few people can really benefit from it. There are also some basic coins that perform well, but they are relatively few, such as $PENDLE. If we were to select the hot word of the year, PVP would definitely be one of them.
So what should we do?
Here are some of my personal thoughts:
1. Fundamentals and community
Are fundamentals important? I think they are.
I think the current fundamentals should refer to the ability to "attract market attention". The current fundamentals are closely related to indicators such as project data, chips, community stickiness, marketing/KOL speech and narrative/catalyst, and whether it can meet the core needs of the market. We need to look at a target more comprehensively.
Take $PENDLE for example. I personally think that Pendle's indicators in these aspects are great. In terms of the correlation between fundamentals and narratives, the initial rise was because Pendle catered to the LSD narrative, and this year Pendle was deeply involved in the LRT narrative, driving the price to continue to rise. This coordination with the narrative keeps Pendle at the forefront of market attention. That is, when people discuss or intend to buy, they will think of Pendle.
I also participate in the Pendle community, and Pendle does a good job in community stickiness and product education. For example, the @PendleIntern account is very good. Users who are really interested in Pendle products can learn some strategies through the Intern account and make plans that are more suitable for their financial situation.
I won’t talk too much about the marketing aspect. There are many introductions to Pendle on Twitter, you can search for them. These marketing contents can be summarized in one sentence: there are few blind calls, and most of them are short articles, threads and prints based on logic, data and products.
When doing most of the targets, we need to refer to these indicators.
2. Information transmission
It is important to know which layer of information transfer you are at.
3. Market sentiment
Learn to observe market sentiment. The specific method is to go deep into the community, observe the comments of community members/community KOLs, and go to Twitter to see what the smart money says when market sentiment is high/low.
You can establish your own information flow and observe the market sentiment at key time points.
Looking back at the market sentiment in early May, does it have that flavor?
Tips: You can go to Douyin to check it out.
Also, remember to observe your emotional ups and downs.
3. Practice prediction
It has been mentioned in many articles introducing GCR, so I won’t go into details here. You can search for it.
Next, let’s talk about the targets that I am more optimistic about:
1. ETH ETF
ETH ETF is great, no need to say more. In addition to leverage, the best beta of ETH is those with ETH in the name, such as $ETHFI $ENS. (I don't recommend $ENA, $ETC is one, but the production reduction event is over). Although I have a position in $LDO, and its fundamentals and circulation conditions are good, considering its performance some time ago, I will not recommend it (even though it has recovered recently).
Of course, the same is true for Pendle, but I've talked about Pendle so many times this year that I won't go into detail here.
As for meme, in addition to $PEPE, you can take a look at $MOG, which is a meme that is shouted more frequently overseas.
If it is related to ETH DeFi, I would consider $MKR. The future catalyst of $MKR is: split + SubDAO (another point worth noting is the cooperation between MakerDAO and Ethena).
As for Beta, you can wait until ETH really starts to rise before chasing it.
Let’s talk more about Layer2.
1、BaseChain
I have ambushed $DEGEN on Base. It will take time to verify whether it can make money. We can look forward to what will happen to BaseChain after Coinbase launches the smart wallet. We should always pay attention to projects that can bring cash flow to the project parties in the long term.
Pay more attention to opportunities on the Base chain, such as the gaming sector (e.g. Aavegotchi). Aavegotchi’s Layer3 built on Base will launch its mainnet in Q2 this year. Maybe this month.
2、Arbitration
The Arbitrum community's "200 million ARB game catalyst plan" proposal should be voted on and passed. This is definitely good for Arbitrum's game ecosystem (such as TreasureDAO).
$MAGIC also has a Layer3 expectation in the future. On April 22, TreasureDAO has launched the Layer3 testnet and is expected to launch the mainnet in Q3 this year, which supports staking.
In addition, Radiant may be affected by LayerZero's coin issuance and v3 upgrade (this has been hyped several times as far as I can remember), and there is a possibility of a short-term rise (I will most likely not participate).
2. AI
The AI sector only discusses two targets with confirmed date catalysts:
$DONE
The merge will happen in 6.11/6.13, after which it will be renamed to $ASI .
$AR
$AO related information will be released on June 13, and participants can mine $AO through $AR.
Personally, I prefer $AR.
There are many other AI coins, so I won’t repeat them one by one. The market sentiment of the AI sector will change according to the changes in the external environment. However, I would not consider participating in $WLD.
3. Political Meme
I only participated in $MAGA. I bought it yesterday at 35 and plan to hold it again. I will pay attention to the sentencing hearing of 7.11 (Trump’s birthday is also coming soon).
The political meme on CEX is $PEOPLE. I will set a market value target of 1 billion US dollars for $PEOPLE.
For such tokens with large price fluctuations, my outlook articles will have some lag. Therefore, after seeing Trump speak out to compete for Crypto voters, or the unexpected passage of ETH ETF, we should realize that politics will become the mainstream narrative of the market. Enter earlier.
4. Can Solana break new highs?
My initial thought was that $SOL might be affected by the strength of $ETH.
Now I have changed my mind: Solana has the attributes of a memecoin casino (referring to those celebrity memes, most people will choose to issue memecoin on Solana), and the current market has a rigid demand for memecoin gambling.
Therefore, I think $SOL will not be sucked too much blood during this period - the current population of $ETH and $SOL has been divided, and people who play $SOL will not easily migrate to $ETH. On the contrary, the rise of $ETH will raise market expectations and push market sentiment to a high point, and Solana will be the beneficiary.
V. Others
1. Selfchain Mainnet
I was hurt by this target ($FRONT) last year, don't look at it.
2、Fantom Sonic
At present, Fantom's launch of Sonic mainnet is a sell news for $FTM speculators. Keep an eye on AC's subsequent actions. Now that the link is out, there must be something to do on it (my expectation).
3. Uniswap "Start-up Fee Mechanism" Voting
It has been postponed. The reason may be that a certain VC is putting pressure on Uniswap. I will keep a certain attention on this matter (as a bystander), but $UNI will most likely not participate in the hype.
April and June are also big months for airdrops, so you need to be aware of the risks.
