Expectations of a Fed rate cut remain stable for the time being, but will non-farm payrolls add fuel to the fire?
This week’s focus
The economic data that need special attention have been marked with yellow bars.
The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing PMI will be released at 21:45 and 22:00 on Monday evening, June 3 respectively. If the released value is higher than the expected value, it will be bearish in the short term. If the released value is higher than the expected value and the previous value, it will be bearish in the medium term.
Job vacancies will be announced at 22:00 on Tuesday evening, June 4th. The job vacancies data reflects employment and has a slight correlation with Friday’s non-farm payrolls. Now that we are approaching the interest rate cut threshold, employment data has become extremely important, so the job vacancies data needs special attention!
On Wednesday, June 5, there will be the ADP small non-farm payrolls. I won't say much about this. Everything will focus on the big non-farm payrolls on Friday. Pay attention to the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision at 24:45 to see whether it will cut interest rates. Secondly, pay attention to the S&P global services PMI. For a consumer country, the service industry is the focus. If the services PMI is relatively high, the market may believe that there is a demand for service industry jobs, indirectly reflecting that the U.S. consumption capacity is still relatively strong, otherwise there would not be a need for so many service industry jobs, which is not a good thing for a rate cut. I won't say much about the non-manufacturing PMI. If the announced value is greater than the expected and previous value, it is bad news, otherwise it is good news. What's interesting is that the services PMI currently has no expected value.
Thursday, June 6th. Thursday is relatively clear. Just focus on whether Europe will raise interest rates. What is unclear is that we need to pay attention to Lagarde's monetary policy speech. In plain words, we need to see if Lagarde will provide any clues for the future monetary policy for the market to speculate and interpret! Initial jobless claims can basically be ignored. The market will focus on Friday's non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate.
It’s Friday, June 7th. There are three things on Friday: non-farm data and unemployment rate. I have mentioned it many times on X. The rise in unemployment rate is a hard indicator for interest rate cuts, so I won’t say much about the unemployment rate. Let’s see if the non-farm data will be a surprise. The previous value was 17.5 and the expectation was 19. In January, February and March of this year, the data basically remained at 30, fluctuating by 3 points. In April, the data directly dropped from 30.3 in March to 17.5. Therefore, this week’s non-farm data has become extremely important!
In summary, there are many macro data events this week. It is the beginning of June and the last month of the second quarter of this year. June 3rd to June 7th may determine the market trend of this month. It is better to manage your positions well and check whether your positions are too heavy before the events and data occur. It is better to make timely adjustments. After all, macroeconomic events are not so easy to judge. Finally, I wish everyone a good harvest in June and double your account! ~~#宏观数据 #宏观经济
