Will Trump go to jail if found guilty? What impact will it have on cryptocurrencies?

On May 30th, US time, after a nine-hour court debate, a jury in a New York court voted to find Trump guilty of 34 charges, making him the first US president in history to be found guilty.

Among Trump's 34 charges, the biggest one is "falsifying business records," which could lead to a four-year prison sentence.

Here's the thing. In 2006, Trump had an affair with porn star Daniels. At that time, Trump was married.

Morally speaking, this is cheating.

If Trump had not entered politics, his cheating would have been a moral issue at best, and he would not have gone to court, let alone jail. But in 2015, Trump officially participated in the presidential election and won the following year. Seeing Trump's momentum, Hillary got a little anxious and started digging up dirt on Trump everywhere.

At this time, Trump thought of what happened between him and Daniels. He knew very well that Daniels was a talkative person. What if he told Hillary about it?

In order to eliminate the risk, Trump decided to give Daniels some hush money, about $130,000, and he sent his trusted lawyer Cohen to do the job.

Trump did not directly give Cohen $130,000 to bribe Daniels. Instead, he asked Cohen to pay first, and then he compensated Cohen in the name of "lawyer fees" from his campaign funds and company expenses.

This also reflects a major flaw in King Dong's character: being stingy.

If Trump directly gave Cohen a bag of cash and asked Cohen to hand it over to Daniels privately, no record would be left in the account.

Even if Daniels tells it, as long as there is no video or audio recording, he can deny it and there is nothing that can be done about it legally.

The key is that Trump is too stingy. As a billionaire, he is reluctant to spend a mere tens of thousands of dollars. He insisted that Cohen pay first and then he would compensate him with public funds. This way he would make money, but the price would be that business records would be left behind, giving the Democrats the possibility of finding evidence against him.

Later, Cohen was arrested by the Democrats for the "Russiagate" incident. Logically, Trump should have done his best to rescue him. After all, he is your lawyer, has followed you for many years, and knows too much.

However, at this time, his "stinginess" came back. Saving Cohen would cost a lot of money. After all, the Democratic Party knew Cohen's importance and would not let him go easily.

So Trump thought, since it is a bit expensive to save Cohen, he might as well not save him. Not only that, he also wants Cohen to bear everything for him. This kind of play is a standard business tactic. It would have been fine if he hadn't played it before he entered politics, but now that he is president, with the Democrats holding a microscope to him, he still dares to play this way. He will only lose his pants.

Seeing Trump's actions, the Democrats knew that the opportunity had come and immediately lobbied Cohen, saying, "Look at your boss, he made you a scapegoat. He is a complete loser. You might as well cooperate with us and make amends for your crime."

Cohen thought, I have followed you for so many years, and you just throw me away without any mercy, right? You are unkind, so don't blame me for being unjust. So he decisively cooperated with the Democrats and exposed all the things, including the "hush money" case for which he was found guilty this time.

This is the origin of the "hush money" case. The case was tried in the Manhattan District Court in New York for several years. It was not until May 30, 2024 that the jury finally found him guilty. Trump paid a heavy price for his stinginess and cleverness.

The trouble with this case is that it is a crime in New York State, and even if he enters the White House again, he cannot pardon himself (the president can only pardon crimes at the federal level, not at the state level).

However, being guilty does not necessarily mean going to jail.

The American court trial model can be understood in a simple and rough way as follows: the jury first votes to determine whether you are guilty. If the jury determines that you are not guilty, there will be no follow-up.

If it is determined that there is, the judge will then decide on a specific date to sentence the king. In Trump's case, the official sentencing date is July 11. Even if Trump is sentenced to four years by the judge as mentioned above, he can still appeal to the New York State Court.

Behind the state court is the Supreme Court, and the appeal process alone will take at least several months, and there is no problem in delaying it until around the election date.

There are a total of four major cases involving Trump. In addition to the "hush money case" that is being talked about now, the remaining three are the "confidential documents case", the "Georgia ballot case" and the "Capitol Hill riots case".

The "confidential documents case" is that he took some confidential documents back to his home, which is suspected of endangering national security;

The "Georgia Ballot Case" was that after losing the 2020 election, Trump, who was furious, called the governor of Georgia and asked him to "find 11,780 votes." As a result, he was recorded and suspected of manipulating the election;

The "Capitol Hill Riot" refers to the Capitol Hill uprising on January 6, 2021, which is suspected of inciting rebellion.

The four cases are integrated. If one case is convicted, the other three are likely to follow. Now that there is a precedent of the "hush money case" being found guilty, the possibility of finding guilty in the following three cases has greatly increased.

Of course, being guilty does not mean going to jail. Fines will still put Trump in jail, so the Democratic Party needs to be cautious about this.

If we want to make all four cases solid and ironclad, we will definitely need the cooperation of the Republican establishment, but from the current perspective, it seems a bit difficult.

On May 23, Nikki Haley announced that she would vote for Trump in the general election, which was a landmark event.

Nikki Haley is a candidate pushed by the establishment. During the 2024 party primary, the Republican establishment mainly pushed two candidates - Haley and DeSantis.

DeSantis announced his support for Trump as early as January this year. The remaining suspense now is Haley. Although Haley cannot defeat Trump in the primary election, she has a lot of votes from the establishment behind her.

Without Haley's support, Trump will never get much support from the establishment. This part of the establishment is likely to cooperate with the Democrats. In this case, the Democrats will get the support of many Republican establishment factions when they deal with Trump on the four major cases.

But with Haley's return, it means that the Republican establishment, after wavering, finally chose to stand with Trump.

Without the cooperation of the Republican establishment, if the Democrats force Trump into the case, serious consequences may result. And don’t forget that the Democrats have obvious problems in their handling of these cases.

For example, in the "confidential documents case", not only did Trump take confidential documents home, but Biden also took them. Biden took more and took longer. As early as the beginning of the 21st century, when Biden was still a senator, he took confidential documents home.

However, the U.S. Department of Justice only investigated Trump and not Biden. The official reason given was that "Biden has Alzheimer's disease." Although he took it, it was not intentional, after all, he has Alzheimer's disease. Trump, on the other hand, was mentally normal and took the confidential documents on purpose.

This is clearly a double standard.

There is also the "Georgia Ballot Case", in which Willis, the Democratic prosecutor responsible for investigating Trump, engaged in serious corruption.

She hired her lover Wade to serve as her deputy in this case. Wade was revealed to have made $4 million from this case (just this case, not including other cases), and he made it legally.

The way is to apply for funds under the banner of investigating Trump, and there are also "donations" from rich people. So how much did Willis make? I don't know, but I think it's not too much to add a zero.

With so many loopholes in the Democratic Party itself, it will not be able to convince the public if they force Trump into the party. If the Republican establishment cooperates, there is still a certain possibility. However, with the return of Haley and DeSantis, this possibility is close to zero.

It is too difficult to get in, but Wang is unwilling to give up if he doesn't understand. Therefore, all parties generally believe that the official result on July 11 will most likely be a fine.

Of course, even a fine is enough to give Trump a headache. Since last year, the Democratic-controlled New York judicial system has imposed multiple fines on Trump, totaling about $454 million including interest.

Although Trump is a wealthy man with nominal assets worth billions of dollars, his cash flow is not much. According to estimates from various parties, it is only about 500 million US dollars.

So some time ago, after being fined a huge amount by the New York court for the rape of Carol, Trump had to list Trump Technology Media Group, the parent company of the "Real Social APP", through a backdoor listing.

The "Real Social" APP is very important to Trump. In case his account is blocked by big platforms like X again one day, "Real Social" is his only backup. It is obvious that he is really short of money by taking out such an important asset for a backdoor listing.

After the backdoor listing is completed, the stocks held by Trump are worth 3 billion US dollars, but the lock-up period is six months. Only one month has passed, and there are still five months. Who knows whether the stock price will fall to the bottom in five months.

The distant water of "real social interaction" cannot save the immediate fire for the time being. Cash flow is still very tight. If at this time, the "hush money case" comes with a huge fine, it will be uncomfortable. Therefore, Trump concept meme coins including NFT have been rising recently. It is not ruled out that Trump's team will raise funds for their own campaign through cryptocurrency. After all, cryptocurrency can be donated to Trump soon!

However, the current world situation is becoming increasingly chaotic, and nothing is impossible. Whether or not to cross the bottom line depends on Biden's degree of urgency.

If the election situation becomes critical next, the possibility of the Democrats tearing off their masks and forcibly sentencing Trump to prison will increase greatly; on the contrary, if Biden's election situation is stable, there is no need for the Democrats to put Trump in jail.

The key to the election is the situation in Palestine and Ukraine, especially the situation in Palestine, which is becoming increasingly unfavorable to Israel. Under extreme anxiety, Israel's killings are increasing.

This is seriously unfavorable to Biden, but favorable to Trump, unfavorable to the Democratic Party, and favorable to the Republican Party.

As Biden's election situation becomes increasingly unfavorable, the bottom line will be broken sooner or later. In the end, there will be only one outcome, which is a fight to the death. There is nothing that can be done about it, and it is not something that the two of them can decide on their own.

The importance of this game is destined. Both sides cannot afford to lose. Since they cannot afford to lose, they will use any means.

Once an avalanche starts, it cannot be stopped.