It is thanks to immigrants.

The question I want to ask you today is very delicate because it has many implications: How is illegal immigration affecting the U.S. economy? I will stick to my area of expertise, which is the economy.

First, note that 80% of the increase in the adult population in the U.S. over the last two years is due to people not born in the U.S. but abroad.

So, the next question is, without these 3.2 million people, how much would the U.S. economy have grown? These people contribute to production and create demand. Without them, U.S. GDP would have grown much less. How much less? At least a third less, so it would have been two-thirds of the estimated figure.

Illegal immigration has helped the U.S. maintain a strong labor market, allowing companies to rely on these workers to continue services. On average, people coming to the U.S. have low technical qualifications. This can affect productivity. In the short term, it doesn't help, but this influx of adults, who will later have children that will enter the education system and fill higher-skilled jobs.

Additionally, this influx isn't happening in countries like China and Russia, which have low birth rates. In the medium and long term, this will boost the U.S. population and productivity while competitor countries lag.

Yesterday, in the Wall Street Journal, I was surprised when they said the inversion of the yield curve failed to predict recessions, questioning its utility.

Remember, when the yield curve inverts, it usually means a recession is coming. But the reason for the recession is that if banks lend less after the inversion, the economy shrinks. If banks lend more, the economy doesn’t enter a recession.

The yield curve inversion signals you to watch credit supply and demand. If it's healthy and growing, the economy won’t recess. This is what’s happening now. It's surprising that the Wall Street Journal would say this, and even more so that Cambridge or Oxford professors would echo it.

That's all for now. I am going for a walk. Have a great day!