Last night, the US was hit by bad news again. First, officials were hawkish. Kashkari, a 26-year voter of the Federal Reserve, mentioned the possibility of further interest rate hikes. Bowman, a member of the Federal Reserve Board, proposed to continue to shrink the balance sheet and stated that more evidence is needed for interest rate cuts. There is no doubt that the remarks of these two are not conducive to the market. Then the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for May released last night also exceeded expectations by a large margin, which to a certain extent reflects the subsequent rise in inflation expectations.

Against the backdrop of both unfavorable voice and data, CME continued to lower the possibility of a rate cut in September. The probability of a rate cut is currently only about 45%, and the probability of a rate cut in November has also dropped a lot, falling below 60%. From the forecast results, it can be seen that even a rate cut this year is not stable. There is a 21% probability of no rate cut, and even a 0.2% probability of a rate hike. Therefore, the current macroeconomic situation is actually very unfavorable to risky assets such as US stocks and cryptocurrencies. This is likely to restrict the impact of cryptocurrencies on the high point in the future.

Regarding ETFs, first of all, Bitcoin ETFs still maintained a positive inflow of funds last night, but compared with last week, the inflow was not much, only 45 million. The reason for the decrease in inflows was that Grayscale GBTC suddenly smashed $100 million. If GBTC's performance last week was followed, there would be no outflow or even a net inflow. In fact, there should still be an inflow of nearly 150 million last night, which shows that the purchasing power of the other nine ETF institutions is very stable. Another thing is that BlackRock had a net inflow of $100 million last night, and several funds under BlackRock have added ibit to their investment portfolios, which is also a good signal. Bernstein's latest report shows that the total market value of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs is expected to grow to $450 billion, which is about 9 times the current size of Bitcoin ETFs. There was no latest news on Ethereum last night, but from the recent speeches of various institutions, it can be seen that they are confident in the approval of spot ETFs. In addition, there are some new products, such as Volatility Share, which will launch the first leveraged Ethereum ETF in the United States on June 4, and WisdomTree's physically-backed Bitcoin and Ethereum ETPs listed on the London Stock Exchange. There is no doubt that the narrative of Ethereum ETF is underway. The recent memes and local dogs on the ETH chain have also shown that the market is focusing on it. In addition, the passage of ETH ETF will definitely bring up expectations for other POS public chains. Against the backdrop of the United States' crypto-friendliness, Ethereum is definitely not the last crypto asset to have an ETF.