Playing the crypto card, will Trump win the US election?

As the US presidential debate between Biden and Trump in June 2024 approaches, voters have expressed deep concerns about the current uncertainty: frequent global wars, severe polarization of political discourse, and continued inflation in the US economy. Against this turbulent backdrop, crypto assets are gradually gaining influence in the election, which is reflected in the latest research from Harris Poll on behalf of Grayscale.

The study found that Bitcoin's relevance is gradually increasing due to macroeconomic dynamics and Bitcoin's own increasing maturity. Nearly half of voters (47%) expect to include cryptocurrencies in their portfolios, up from 40% at the end of last year.

Similar to the first phase of this year's poll, respondents see inflation as the top issue in the election (accounting for 28%), which further highlights the potential value of assets with transparent and fixed supply caps, such as Bitcoin.

Trump actively supported cryptocurrencies during the campaign, and recent cryptocurrency bills FIT21 and SAB 121 have also received bipartisan support in Congress. Data from the Harris Poll further confirms that cryptocurrencies have become a common focus of bipartisan concern, with Republicans and Democrats participating equally.

As geopolitical tensions, inflation, and dollar risks rise, voters’ interest in Bitcoin has continued to rise since the first phase of this survey (currently 41%, compared to just 34% in November 2023). In particular, 28% of voters believe that inflation is a core issue in the election, which highlights the value of assets such as Bitcoin, as they have a clear supply cap.

Notably, Grayscale added some new questions to the survey. The Harris Poll found that events including the approval of a US spot Bitcoin ETF in January 2024 and the halving in April 2024 increased voters’ interest in investing in Bitcoin and other crypto assets. In particular, the approval of a Bitcoin ETF has made 9% of retired voters more interested in investing in Bitcoin or crypto assets.

2024 has been a great year for Bitcoin. On March 13, the price of Bitcoin hit an all-time high; so far, the daily price of Bitcoin in 2024 has been higher than in previous election years.So, some people began to speculate: Will November become "Bitcoin Election Month"?

The attention that cryptocurrencies have received is not limited to Bitcoin, but also extends to the broader crypto asset space. Nearly a third of voters said that they are more willing to learn about or actually invest in cryptocurrencies since the beginning of the year. Compared with November 2023, more voters see cryptocurrencies as good long-term investment opportunities and expect to include cryptocurrencies in their portfolios.

Despite Trump's active support for cryptocurrencies during the campaign, data shows that this is a bipartisan issue, with similar attention from Republicans and Democrats. Voters are divided on party support for the cryptocurrency industry, as the same proportion of voters believe that the Democratic and Republican positions on cryptocurrency policy are most favorable. These findings indicate that there is a balanced interest in cryptocurrencies across the political spectrum, which is consistent with the recent bipartisan support for SAB 121 resolution in Congress.

However, Republican voters are more likely to view inflation and economic issues as pressing issues. While ownership levels are similar across parties, Republicans seem to place more importance on issues related to Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. This may explain why Trump tends to support cryptocurrencies during the campaign.

The United States is at a critical juncture, and the two candidates are divided on macro policies, and these positions have a direct impact on the US dollar and Bitcoin. As voters become increasingly interested in cryptocurrencies, the next administration's attitude toward this emerging digital asset is crucial. This is especially important for winning the support of young voters, as most Generation Z and millennial voters believe that cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology are the future of finance. In any case, as November approaches, it is clear that all policymakers and candidates preparing to participate in the 2024 election will increasingly consider the impact of cryptocurrencies.

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