After the Bitcoin spike, the Bitcoin price rebounded quickly. This morning, the change in the BTC held by MtGox (i.e. Mentougou) has caused a lot of shock to many investors. Many friends are puzzled. The market was still rising yesterday, so why did it turn to decline overnight? Is it because there are "big dealers" who want to act before Mentougou sells? However, this speculation may be too complicated. Regardless of the influence of the so-called "big dealers", just look at the number of BTC held by Mentougou - 137,891. Although this number is huge, it is actually only equivalent to the total amount of sales on normal working days for 2-3 days. To illustrate the problem more intuitively, we can review the historical data of GBTC. Before April this year, GBTC sold an average of about 7,000 BTC per working day. Especially when the ETF was passed in January, the daily sales exceeded 10,000, and such high sales lasted for more than two weeks. Entering April, during the Genesis compensation period, the average daily selling volume of GBTC remained at around 4,000 pieces, which lasted for more than a month, but the price of BTC did not collapse.
Although Mentougou seems to have sold a lot this time, not all those who received compensation will choose to sell. In fact, I think it would be a good thing if everyone chooses to sell. Because this can turn low-priced holders into high-priced holders, thus forming a stronger support for the subsequent market price trend.
Regarding the question of when the compensation will start, although there is an article today that is allegedly from MtGox (although I cannot confirm its source, given that many media have reprinted it, we temporarily assume that its content is true) that there is indeed a compensation plan, the specific compensation time has not yet been determined. As far as I know, the compensation plan may be a long-term, phased process.
As for the reason for today's market decline, I think it is similar to yesterday's rise, and it is affected by the low liquidity caused by the current US holidays. In a low liquidity environment, the market amplitude will naturally expand. To observe the real stable price of the market, we still need to wait for the trend of the US stock market after the opening today.
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