Analysts cite a classic trading pattern and the growth of the total altcoin market capitalization index as evidence of an upcoming altcoin season.
Bitcoin price $BTC has struggled to hold the crucial support of $64,800 just days after completing its fourth halving on April 20.
Meanwhile, altcoins, led by memecoins and layer 1 cryptocurrencies, have outperformed BTC over the past week, leaving market participants wondering if altseason has arrived.
Altcoin season, or “altseason,” typically refers to a phase of the cryptocurrency market in which the value of altcoins rises and often exceeds that of BTC.
On April 24, trader and analyst Mustache noted that TOTAL2, the total altcoin market capitalization excluding BTC, had completed the ABC correction phases of the Wyckoff method and was in the midst of a breakout.
Cryptocurrency investors have been eagerly waiting for altcoins to start rising as they offer a higher risk-reward ratio.
In a previous X post from April 23, the analyst noted that TOTAL2 had escaped a falling wedge on the monthly chart, repeating a similar setup seen during the 2020-2021 market cycle.
Analyzing TOTAL2, entrepreneur and cryptocurrency investor Lark Davis noted that the altcoin market capitalization had regained key support from the 50-day exponential moving average.
Although this crucial support has been lost since Wall Street opened on April 24, a bullish crossover of the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator suggested that altcoins were poised for an upward move.
Davis said:
"With a bullish MACD crossover, you could be on the verge of something big."
However, it is not yet time to celebrate. After the highs reached in mid-March, most altcoins have corrected. BTC remains 12% below its all-time high above $73,800, and the April 24 flash crash threatens to take it below the $65,000 level.
Analyst Daan Crypto Trades said sentiment towards altcoins is “pretty low,” adding: “People are becoming pessimistic about ever seeing an altseason at all.”
The altcoin performance apparently coincides with a decline in the altcoin season index by Blockchain Center, indicating that the altcoin season is not yet here. According to this index:
“If 75% of the top 50 coins performed better than Bitcoin during the last season (90 days), it is Altcoin season.”
