After the Ethereum ETF was approved, it did not rise as expected. Can it still hit $10,000?

In the early morning of May 24, all applications for the Ethereum ETF were "suddenly" approved. The reason why it was so sudden was that the market's prediction of the probability of the Ethereum ETF being approved was less than 20%. There was a substantial advance in the early morning of May 20, and then it was approved in the early morning of May 24. The speed was too fast. The market believed that this was political pressure brought by the US election to please voters.

After the news was released, Ethereum instantly rose by 20%, but it fell when the ETF was officially approved. Why? There are several reasons: In June 2023, BlackRock applied for Bitcoin ETF, and Bitcoin ETF was approved in January 2024. It took more than half a year to prepare and hype. However, the approval of Ethereum ETF was too sudden, and the market funds had no time to react. Although Ethereum's performance was somewhat weak in the bull market brought by Bitcoin ETF, it rose by about 4 times after all, and the space was also somewhat overdrawn. Ethereum's ecology is somewhat "weak". As the ecological currency of the king of ten thousand chains, there is no decent ecological demand in this round of bull market. The limelight was taken by SOL, and the on-chain activities tended to the freezing point. After the Bitcoin ETF was approved, after a round of hype, the fomo sentiment of market funds was somewhat weakened, and the enthusiasm for subsequent ETFs to be approved was reduced. Grayscale Fund holds 3 million ETH. Before the official opening of trading, it is likely to face a large selling pressure like when Bitcoin ETF was approved. How much new funds can take on Grayscale's selling pressure while driving the market to continue to rise? The approval of ETF is a long-term positive, but in the short term, if it rises too much, it will be adjusted back. At present, the crypto industry itself does not have a large-scale ecological landing to drive the industry to continue to move forward. Even the funds of Bitcoin ETF are no longer "rapidly" flowing in. It can be seen that there are not many large funds that can flow in from the OTC market in the short term. In fact, the biggest factor affecting the crypto industry is still the macro-financial environment. The US stock market and Bitcoin have already risen sharply. In the current market environment, there is not much room for further sharp rises. The willingness of funds to continue to take over at such a high position is not strong, unless the Federal Reserve releases a large amount of money. Now the market knows that the Federal Reserve's high interest rate cannot be maintained for too long, but it has to maintain the "thriving" situation of the market before the election, so it has been reluctant to cut interest rates.

According to the previous Fed's rate hike and rate cut cycle, crises often occur in the early stages of rate cuts, and then money is released to save the market. The market is not sure whether this will happen again? So there have been concerns. If there are concerns, there will not be too much big money rushing in, let alone at a high level. Ethereum is likely to be the same as when Bitcoin ETF was passed. After the large selling pressure of Grayscale Fund is reduced, if there is continuous inflow of funds, a wave of speculation will be generated.

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