#ETH走势分析
Stagnant network usage, high fees and regulatory uncertainty have hampered Ethereum’s price performance.
On May 23, the Ethereum spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) was approved by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Despite the long-awaited decision, the price of Ether failed to stay above $3,800 on May 24, which was surprising as ETH was trading as high as $3,943 just two days ago. The market had been uncertain about the odds of approval, so the decision, especially its timing, caught many off guard.
Ethereum Still 24% Below All-Time High
Some market participants were quick to point out that the SEC has yet to approve every issuer’s S-1 statement, a process that could take weeks or months. This delay, along with other factors, has hampered Ethereum’s performance, including stagnant network growth, relatively high transaction fees and uncertainty about U.S. regulation.
Some of the recent profit-taking may be due to anticipation of spot ETF approval, which triggered a 23% rally on May 20, an event often referred to as the “news sell.” Traders bought ETH in anticipation of an official announcement, especially after the SEC reportedly urged exchanges like the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq to expedite 19b-4 filings on May 20.
Despite the excitement surrounding the spot ETF approval, ether is still 24% below its all-time high of $4,868 set in November 2021, suggesting that enthusiasm is not enough to push ether’s market cap past its current $445 billion. Notably, bitcoin is trading just 7% below its all-time high set in March 2024, suggesting that other factors are constraining ether’s performance.
Ethereum network metrics show no signs of improvement
Over the past 30 days, Ethereum network usage metrics have shown a lack of growth in the number of decentralized applications (DApps) and deposits.
The Ethereum network’s total value locked (TVL) has fallen 6% after peaking at 18.3 million ETH on May 16. The metric excludes DApps that do not require a large deposit base, such as non-fungible token (NFT) marketplaces, games, social networks, and collectibles. A detailed examination of the network’s leading applications shows a high concentration of trading volume in the top decentralized exchange (DEX) Uniswap.
Additionally, seven of the top ten Ethereum DApps by 30-day transaction volume saw a decrease in active addresses. Activity on the leader, Uniswap, dropped by 25%. Additionally, several DApps failed to attract more than 4,000 addresses, raising concerns about the network’s total addressable market, especially as competitors offer much lower fees.
The problem of arbitrage incentives and regulatory uncertainty
Miner Extracted Value (MEV) presents another challenge to Ethereum. This practice, in which validators organize transactions within a block to generate profits (such as creating slippage on a DEX exchange or front-running NFT minting), leads to network congestion and higher gas fees.
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin addressed this issue on May 17 by proposing protocol-level controls to reduce the information available to MEV developers, either by completely separating the verification process from the content of blocks or by limiting the ability of block producers to prioritize certain transactions over others. Despite Vitalik’s efforts, a practical solution is unlikely to emerge in the coming months.
Paul Grewal, chief legal officer at Coinbase, said the spot ETF approval was a positive regulatory development that classifies Ether as a digital commodity. However, ongoing regulatory actions against Consensys and the Ethereum Foundation continue to cast a shadow. Some analysts claim that it remains an open question whether Ether is classified as a non-security instrument until the SEC signs the S-1 registration statement.
In April, Consensys received a Wells Notice from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regarding MetaMask’s trading and staking services. Additionally, Fortune reported in March that the regulator was investigating companies suspected of having ties to the Ethereum Foundation for staking services, adding to regulatory uncertainty and further weighing on Ether’s performance.
