At 5:00 a.m. Beijing time on May 24, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved the 19 b-4 forms of multiple Ethereum spot ETFs, including those from BlackRock, Fidelity, and Grayscale. However, although the form has been approved, ETF issuers need to make the S-1 registration statement effective before they can start trading. The Galaxy Digital report released earlier predicted that the Ethereum spot ETF may be listed on the exchange in July or August. James Seyffart, an ETF analyst at Bloomberg, recently said that it is also possible for the Ethereum spot ETF to be listed in mid-June.
Ethereum spot ETF went from being unpopular and having an approval rate of only 7% to an approval rate of 75% overnight, and the price of ETH has repeatedly broken through the $3,800 mark. Perhaps no one expected that the Ethereum ETF would be approved just over four months after the Bitcoin ETF was approved. Although the reasons for the sudden change in the wind direction are still controversial, market observers and senior cryptocurrency practitioners generally believe that the approval of regulators will have varying degrees of impact on Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies.
After the Ethereum spot ETF was approved today, the price only briefly broke through $3,900 at 5 a.m., and then remained at $3,700-3,850. Why didn't ETH usher in the expected "big surge"? What's the reason behind it? Let's listen to the analysis and opinions of the crypto KOLs:
BITWU.ETH (Crypto KOL)
Why didn’t the Ethereum spot ETF see a surge after it was approved? I think many people don’t quite understand this question. Here is a brief introduction to the difference between the two files:
Last night, the U.S. SEC approved 19 b-4 documents for eight Ethereum spot ETFs, a form used to notify the SEC of rule changes that allow ETFs to be traded on exchanges.
For example, introducing new products, modifying trading mechanisms or other relevant exchange policies. Once submitted, the SEC will review the proposal and solicit public comments before deciding whether to approve it.
However, the approval of the 19 b-4 document does not mean that the ETF is approved. Formal listing requires the ETF issuer to obtain the S-1 document approved by the SEC.
An S-1 filing is a registration statement that a company files with the SEC for an initial public offering (IPO) or other securities offering, including an ETF listing.
The S-1 filing is not the last step, but it is a very critical step under the supervision of the US SEC!
Only after the SEC completes its review of the S-1 document and approves it, the S-1 document becomes effective and fund managers can continue to prepare for the official listing of the ETF, including determining the listing date and conducting marketing.
In general, the approval of 19 b-4 means that the project is feasible; the approval of S-1 means that it is a done deal. Currently, this process takes several weeks to several months, so the price will not skyrocket in a short period of time.
Coupled with the fact that multiple spot Ethereum ETFs have been listed on the DTCC website, this could very well be the script for a#Bitcoinspot ETF!
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Fiona (Crypto KOL)
The ETH ETF has suddenly taken such a big turn. The Democratic Party has made great efforts. If they don’t make efforts as the election is approaching, it will be too late.
From the one-sided situation of the Democratic Party in the House of Representatives voting FIT 21, we can also see that the people at the top have exerted their strength!
Today I thought that the most direct benefit of ETF is ETH itself, and the second is POS ETH. If there is an ETF for ETH, then $SOL will also have a chance to be the next one.
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Lianyanshe (crypto KOL):
The SEC approved eight spot Ethereum ETFs at once, including ETFs from BlackRock, Fidelity, and Grayscale. Although the form has been approved.
However, the listing transaction still requires approval of the issuer's planned S-1 form, which is expected to take a few weeks to 3 months to complete.
What is different from the previous prediction is that the SEC approved it all at once instead of just approving one, which means that this time ETH will still have to experience Grayscale’s Ethereum selling pressure, which is about 10 billion US dollars.
Grayscale's GBTC had a selling pressure of 21 billion U.S. dollars at the time, and ETHE's holdings were less than 10 billion U.S. dollars. The inflow of Bitcoin spot ETF on the first day of listing was 300 million U.S. dollars. How much money will Ethereum spot ETF have inflow? After Grayscale started redemption, ETH's own buying may not be able to withstand such a large selling pressure.
Therefore, I will choose to take profit on most of my $ETH positions and switch to BTC, BNB, and SOL before the transaction is officially launched.
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Kay Capital（Crypto KOL）
What happens if the ETH ETF is approved?
ETH’s ancient giant bull.
Before the BTC ETF was approved, the entire market faced the approval of the ETF for the first time, and there were three scenarios in general:
1. As in history, the top is when a major event happens (short-term short) 2. ETF Inflow brings about a slow bull market (long) 3. ETF becomes a Blur, providing unprecedented liquidity and shipping opportunities for early whales, especially GBTC (long-term short)
Expectations were wildly inconsistent, bringing a drop of about 20% followed by a bull run that almost doubled from 38,000.
If the ETH ETF is approved, most people will expect it to imitate the BTC ETF, which first fell and then rose. So it is likely to be a front-run of this expectation, that is, it will go up directly.
1. ETH’s increase this time is not that much. The expectation that ETH ETF may be passed faster only appeared this week, and the increase was no more than 20%, far lower than the doubling of BTC.
2. The price of ETH has been suppressed for too long, and the exchange rate is in the historically dense trading area. 3. If it passes, will the activity of traditional ETH chain decrease? Is there a lack of legendary narrative in this round of ETH? 4. ETHE is far less than the selling pressure of GBTC
Current macro situation:
1. The four major US stock indexes are in a bullish position. 2. Nvidia's earning call exceeded expectations and its stock split occurred. 3. VIX fell to a one-year low. It is difficult for the US dollar and US bonds to continue to strengthen in the short term. 4. The passage of the FIT 21 bill and the need for election donations
In other words, the direction of least resistance in the market is ETH, which is upward! We must learn to play to the situation!
This is our front-runner for traditional stupid money, cherish the opportunity.
What about other coins?
In the previous article “Crypto Industry, What is the Next Big Catalyst?” I shared:
“Only if the US ETH ETF is approved can it bring a carnival exclusive to the cryptocurrency circle, an epic alt season, and countless dumb money and euphoric times.
It’s a very simple logic. The approval of Shitcoin ETF is just like domestic violence/cross-dressing/prostate massage. There are only 0 times and countless times. ”
Once the ETH ETF is approved, people will start fantasizing about the approval of the SOL/AVAX/PEPE/DOGE ETF. Even if SOL has been designated as a security by the SEC, it doesn’t matter. What matters is the emotion and momentum.
According to cognitive operations, once a prediction is made, knowledge and action must be integrated.
Position related
70% ETH, 30% PEPE, ready to welcome the long bull market. Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe met with Hillary Clinton in advance before the 2016 US presidential election, but after President Trump was elected, Abe's attitude changed 180 degrees. He immediately flew to the United States to meet with President Trump and quoted the Book of Changes: "A great man changes like a tiger, a gentleman changes like a leopard" to respond to the outside world's change of attitude towards him.
Major powers grasp changes in the situation, just as a tiger's stripes change with the seasons. Other countries should also be like leopards, sensing changes in the situation and making adjustments, so that they can survive in the treacherous and ever-changing international political and economic situation.
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Dovey Wan (Founder, Primitive Ventures):
short term:
ETF approved with diminishing marginal pumpability + 11 B total ETHE plus 2.5% fees plus (hidden cost of missing out on staking rewards)
long:
We will start to see more and more ETFs and other structures come to market with BlackRock and similar institutions issuing crypto index products, imagine a hybrid SP 500 95% BTC 5% index ETF or a 50% gold 50% BTCETF or a 50% FAANG 50 BTC/ETH/SOL hybrid, more accessible to the average person, people actually clicking a button and buying it from their 401k.
In the long term, I think it will take multiple cycles, just like CME futures were launched in the 2017 bull run, but only exceeded Binance futures in volume in this bull run.
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