I guess everyone is waiting and guessing whether#ETHspot ETF will pass.
But whether it passes or not, we have to implement it in the end.
1. Pass. Refer to the situation after $BTC spot ETF passed. First, it quickly inserted a pin upward and then fell back. Then the sentiment gradually cooled down and sold the news. After the correction, it began to rise structurally. Refer to#BTCspot ETF passed 1.11-1.23 and adjusted for 12 days before starting to rise.
2. Not passed. Don't think about it. If it is completely rejected, the market is expected to flash a big negative line.
3. Half of it passed, that is, 19b-4, and the remaining S1/S3 will be announced at an appropriate time. This situation is actually equivalent to passing. After a small upward and downward insertion, under the support of the expectation of passing, ETH will most likely follow the fluctuation of the big cake, but the exchange rate of ETH/BTC will gradually recover and rise, and move out of the bottom-up posture.
Looking back at the history of the past few days, before Eric broke the news in the early morning of May 21 and raised the probability of ETF approval from 25% to 75%, both I and the market basically expected that it would not pass. The reason is also very simple. From the perspective of market sentiment and funds, the issuance of multi-currency and multi-fund products is not supported for the time being. It is generally expected that it will be approved before or after the release of water to absorb liquidity. At the same time, referring to the repeated emotional release and expected hype of the#BTCspot ETF for three months from October to January, such as the fake news event on October 16, the DTCC that flipped pancakes, Wu Jihan's research report, Gary's changing performances, etc., the time for Ethereum's expected hype seems to be too short, the performance is not in place, the foreplay is not enough, and the rhythm is too fast if it is suddenly forced. If it passes like this, we have to guess the intention behind it. Of course, it will not be too late to guess after the news is released.
In summary, my current view is that half of it is passed, and the remaining half will be acted upon when the time is right. Since even the FIT21 bill has been passed, the subsequent Ethereum spot ETF will 100% pass. It is just a matter of choosing the timing node, and continuing to hype expectations to maximize benefits seems to be the best solution.
