Is macro analysis useful for cryptocurrency trading? Let me share my personal opinion.
Macro analysis is useful, but it is definitely a deviation to only look at macro analysis. Asset prices are determined by multiple factors. Macro analysis plays a role in trends, just like "oscillating rise" and "unilateral rise" are two different things. In the short term, the role of macro is not as good as that of a big KOL. You need to look at the macro, but it is easy to get obsessed with it if you stare at the macro every day.
How to make macro analysis work? My experience is to focus on the key points and the core, and find the strongest attraction at different stages. For example, at present, inflation is high/there are recession expectations/interest rate cut expectations/serious fiscal deficits/cryptocurrency policies, etc. Each factor has an impact on the price of the currency, but the most influential factor at this stage is whether the ETF is passed, followed by the expectation of interest rate cuts. At the end of the year, we should pay attention to the attitude of the new US president towards cryptocurrency, and next year we should pay attention to the recession.
At the end of the macro analysis, we have to output a clear judgment, which can be used to guide your trading. Blind analysis and analysis for the sake of analysis are meaningless. I suggest that you learn macro, and you don’t need to learn obscure economic knowledge, but you need to understand the principles of modern economic operation.
In actual application, macro analysis is only the first link. For example, when macro analysis determines that the next trend is "oscillating upward", we also need to combine multiple factors such as technical aspects/narratives/dog dealers to determine whether trading can be carried out.
Finally, you must fully trust your own judgment. When the market trend is obviously inconsistent with your judgment, don't panic. Check each factor carefully and review it more. Repeatedly understand the influence of macro factors, and over time, macro judgments will become more and more accurate.
