The deadline for the first round of ETH spot ETFs is approaching, with VanEck's deadline being May 23 and Ark Invest/21Shares' deadline being May 24. The Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy meeting minutes will be released at 2:00 on May 23, and the market is looking for new signals about the timing of rate cuts.
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SEC officials unexpectedly asked Nasdaq and the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) to quickly update and revise their spot ETH ETF listing application documents, which is usually a requirement before approval, suggesting that the agency may be ready to approve the two companies' applications. The U.S. House of Representatives will vote on the 21st Century Financial Innovation and Technology Act (FIT21) on May 22, which aims to clarify the regulatory responsibilities of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for cryptocurrencies. FIT21 aims to establish a clear regulatory framework for digital assets in the United States, including consumer protection, disclosure regulations, and the use of cryptocurrencies in illegal finance. This is the first comprehensive cryptocurrency legislation to be voted on in Congress. Zhu Su, the former founder of Three Arrows Capital, said that if the ETH spot ETF is approved, ETH will rise 80% from $3,000 to $5,400, and BTC will rise to $80,000 (ETH/BTC reaches 0.0675). According to Utrasound Money data, the current destruction rate lags far behind the issuance rate, with an average of 303,000 ETH destroyed each year, while 918,000 ETH are issued each year. Anthony Pompliano, founder of Pomp Investments, said that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may approve ETH. If the SEC approves the ETH ETF, it means approving the entire industry, which is the last dam to be broken. Justin Sun said, "I don't think I hold more ETH than the ETH Foundation. ETH is completely decentralized. Currently, no one holds more ETH than the community." According to previous media reports, Justin Sun currently holds a total of 665,000 ETH, of which 390,000 were increased from the end of last year to the end of April this year, with an average price of US$2,984.
Scott Johnsson, a well-known American financial lawyer, said that the ETH spot ETF applied by Fidelity has stated that it will not pledge ETH, and the bigger signal is that the commodity grantor trust structure and disclosure have not changed. All signs indicate that the US Securities and Exchange Commission will abandon the argument that ETH is a security. Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley said that US regulators are accepting BTC as an investable asset faster than most people realize. By next year, large technology companies like Meta may include BTC in their balance sheets, as ETFs make the asset easier to hold. The next catalyst for the BTC bull market will be the degree of support for BTC from the most important and smartest organizations and legislators." Tether issued an additional $1 billion in stablecoins on May 21. The SEC asked Nasdaq and the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) to modify their spot ETH ETF applications, indicating that regulators may be ready to approve them. So far, six spot ETH ETF applicants have submitted revised 196-4 documents, including VanEck, Fidelity, Franklin, Ark Invest, Grayscale, and Invesco Galaxy. The spot ETH ETF (code ETHV) launched by the asset management group VanEck has been listed on the website of the US Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation (DTCC), and the Create/Redemption (Create:Redeem) column is displayed as N. The US Securities and Exchange Commission seems reluctant to agree that pledged ETH is a security. At present, Grayscale, Fidelity, etc. have deleted plans to pledge ETH in their proposed ETFs, indicating that the trust fund's ETH will not be pledged. Variant Jake Chervinsky, chief legal officer of the Fund, said that if the US SEC approves the ETH spot ETF, it will have to admit that non-pledged ETH is not a security. This will be a major policy move by the SEC. The agency has previously refused to recognize any assets other than BTC as non-securities.
On May 21, the spot BTC ETF had a net inflow of $307 million, and Grayscale had no outflow. Venture capital firm QCP Capital said that the spot price is unlikely to stabilize here. If approved, it will be closer to the short-term target of $4,000, or $5,000 later this year. If rejected, it will fall back to $3,000. Standard Chartered Bank expects the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to approve the ETH spot ETF this week, which will drive $15 billion to $45 billion in inflows in the first 12 months after approval, and reiterates the ETH year-end target price of $8,000 and the price of $14,000 by the end of 2025. Standard Chartered expects BTC to hit a new all-time high by the weekend and is confident in the price targets of $150,000 by the end of 2024 and $200,000 by the end of 2025. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas remains skeptical, saying that the ETH ETF may only account for 15% of BTC ETF assets. Waller, a popular candidate for the next head of the Federal Reserve, believes that the possibility of a re-acceleration of inflation can be ruled out. If the data supports it, a rate cut may be considered at the end of the year. The idea of cutting interest rates only once does not make much sense. The April inflation data showed that progress toward the 2% target may have resumed, and the lack of acceleration in inflation is a reassuring signal.
Morgan Stanley said: Despite the record highs in the US stock market, investors are still holding on to cash, which shows that there is enough room for the market to expand upward. The market is still in the "fear" stage in this cycle. "This is an early sign of the bull market." The money market may provide momentum for the next stage of the stock market's rise. The abundance of cash to be allocated is a catalyst for further gains, because if the stock market continues to rise, then the "fear of missing out" (FOMO) may be strong. The deadline for the first round of ETH spot ETFs is approaching, with VanEck's deadline being May 23 and Ark Invest/21Shares' deadline being May 24. The latest Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting minutes will be released at 2:00 on May 23, and the market is looking for new signals about the timing of interest rate cuts. If the ETH spot ETF is approved, it is expected to open the "gate" of ETH demand, shifting from the current oversupply to supply tightening. With the listing of the Bitcoin spot ETF, new ETF funds have accumulated $13 billion, and the currency market has supported the bull market boom for 6 months from October last year to April this year. If the ETH spot ETF is rejected, it will go back to the time before the rise. If the ETH spot ETF is approved for listing, the bull market will come earlier; if the ETH spot ETF is rejected, the bull market needs to continue to wait for the Fed's interest rate cut (September or November). There will be results soon, pay attention to the risks, and there will be big fluctuations in the next two days. #比特币披萨节 #以太坊ETF批准预期 #新币挖矿
