Data from decentralized options market Lyra shows that the price of ether (ETH) has a 20% chance of rising to $5,000 by the end of next month. The price peaked at $4,692 during the last bull run, according to CoinDesk data.

To reach a new record, ether would need to rise by about a third from its current level of around $3,740. The 20% gain was spurred this week by optimism that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will approve an ETH exchange-traded fund (ETF) spot.

“The Lyra options market suggests that ETH has about a 20% chance of reaching $5,000 by June 28,” Nick Foster, Lyra’s founder and former Wall Street options trader, told CoinDesk in an email. “By July 26, there is a 20% chance that ETH is above $5,500 as traders add positions following ETF speculation.”