On May 21, Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas raised the probability of spot ETH ETF approval from 25% to 75%, saying that the US Securities and Exchange Commission may make a 180-degree turn. On May 22, European Central Bank President Lagarde said: If the inflation path remains unchanged, the ECB is likely to cut interest rates in June.

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The U.S. House of Representatives will vote this week on the 21st Century Financial Innovation and Technology (FIT21) Act, which will clarify the role of financial regulators on digital assets, giving the bill a chance to become law. The legislation will clarify how the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regulate digital assets. Brazil's central bank: decided to phase in cryptocurrency regulation, and expects to complete the normative proposal by the end of 2024. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission will evaluate VanEck's ETH ETF on May 23 and Ark/21Shares and Nvidia's earnings on May 24. Bizantine Capital managing partner said there is reason to believe that the report will bring a glimmer of hope for the delay, which should indicate that ETH will receive final approval next year, paving a major path for the future. CoinShares weekly report shows that digital asset investment products had inflows of $932 million for the second consecutive week last week, and the inflows in the last three trading days of last week accounted for 89% of the total flow. Despite the increase in inflows, the volume was only $10.5 billion, compared with $40 billion in March. Fortune magazine disclosed that the first fund of venture capital firm Blockchange has allocated more than US$530 million to investors in March this year. The fund has allocated more than US$860 million since its establishment. CryptoQuant data shows that only 1,918,417 BTC are currently stored on centralized trading platforms, the lowest point since 2024, and 400,000 less than a year ago.

Zerocap analysts said that BTC's three-month basis surged to more than 10% over the weekend, indicating that positive sentiment is building in the market. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas said: "The probability of spot ETH ETF approval has been raised from 25% to 75%, and the SEC may make a 180-degree turn, so now everyone is working hard to prepare (like us, everyone else thinks it will be rejected)." Matrixport said that historically, ETH's trading volume has averaged 30% higher than BTC's trading volume, but recently ETH's trading volume has been even lower, although it is usually an asset with a higher beta value. This has not been the case since the start of the bull market. ETH volatility appears cheap relative to BTC volatility. Glassnode analyst Checkmatey said that BTC's breakthrough of a new ATH value historically represents a transition point to the bull, which also coincides with the MVRV ratio exceeding 1 standard deviation, but it rarely breaks through it on the first attempt. On May 21, Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas raised the probability of spot ETH ETF approval from 25% to 75%, saying that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission may make a 180-degree turn and may be approved as early as Wednesday. Media reports said: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) asked applicants to speed up the update of the 19B-4 documents on spot ETH ETFs, indicating that they may approve these applications by Thursday this week, but this does not mean that spot ETH ETFs will be approved. Potential issuers also need to obtain approval of the S-1 application before these products can begin trading. It may take an uncertain time for the SEC to approve the S-1 document because there is no deadline.

Jamesseyifart, ETF analyst at Bloomberg, said: It may take weeks to months before S-1 approval and the actual ETH ETF goes live. These theoretical approvals may be seen later this week, which means that the question of S-1 approval is "when" rather than "if". (The S-1 document is a registration statement that a company must submit before publicly offering its shares) Variant Fund Chief Legal Officer Jake Chervinsky said: If the spot ETH ETF is approved, everyone who is close to this process will be shocked, which means that after the SAB121 vote, the approval may mark a change in the attitude of the US Securities and Exchange Commission towards cryptocurrencies, perhaps more important than the ETF itself. Bitcoin stood at $70,000 and Ethereum stood at $3,800. If the ETH spot ETF is listed, refer to the BTC spot ETF: On May 20, the US BTC spot ETF had a net inflow of $235 million. Previously, from May 13 to May 17, the US spot BTC ETF achieved a net inflow of $948 million, the highest level since March. The approval of the ETH spot ETF may temporarily differentiate the inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs, and will re-introduce new institutional investors in the long term. If it shows that the US Securities and Exchange Commission has changed its attitude towards whether cryptocurrencies are securities, it will be good for the entire cryptocurrency market. The ten Bitcoin spot ETFs that were previously listed have accumulated BTC worth $36.71 billion in four months. Together with Grayscale, these 11 funds hold a total of BTC worth $56.05 billion.

BTC hits a record high against the Japanese yen. Arthur Hayes, founder of BitMEX, predicts that in order to curb the depreciation of the yen, the Federal Reserve may reach an unlimited dollar-yen swap agreement with the Bank of Japan, which will trigger a sharp depreciation of the US dollar. The depreciation of the US dollar means a sharp increase in global US dollar liquidity, which is good for the cryptocurrency market led by BTC and may mean the arrival of a cryptocurrency bull market. On May 22, European Central Bank President Lagarde said: If the inflation path remains unchanged, the European Central Bank is likely to cut interest rates in June. Capital Economics said: Even if the Federal Reserve does not move, it cannot prevent the European Central Bank and the Bank of England from cutting interest rates by more than currently expected. Deutsche Bank raised the end-of-year target price of the S&P 500 index from the previously expected 5,100 points to 5,500 points. The old man previously speculated that there would be a rebound in May, mainly because he believed that US inflation would decline, leading to a rebound. Unexpectedly, the ETH spot ETF had a potential positive effect. At the end of April, it was also written that Justin Sun was taking advantage of the decline in April to increase his holdings. Interestingly, every time Justin Sun increased his holdings, he would experience a short-term correction and be trapped, and then start to rise. In a bull market, the market rises and falls repeatedly, and each decline is just a preparation for a new rise, because in a bull market, the bottom and top are continuously raised. If the ETH spot ETF is approved for listing, it will reappear the scene of attracting money from the US stock market when the Bitcoin spot ETF is listed, and promote the bull market of the cryptocurrency market. (Pay attention to the ETH spot ETF information on May 23) #以太坊ETF批准预期 #BTC突破7万大关 #山寨币热点