Will Ethereum spot ETF become a reality? The market is constantly waiting and watching.
Exchange analysts remind the market that although most people believe that the US authorities will not approve Ethereum spot ETFs in the short term, this possibility is actually underestimated.
Han pointed out in a report last week: "The market may underestimate the timing and probability of approval. Ethereum may usher in unexpected gains in the next few months without facing the pressure of excess supply, such as token unlocking or miner selling."
The SEC will decide whether to approve the Ethereum spot ETF listing application submitted by VanEck, ArkInvest/21 Shares by May 23 and 24. Although market expectations have been greatly reduced, it is not clear whether it will be approved.
Although the exchange said that the approval of the Ethereum spot ETF is low, it is not clear whether it will happen because Ethereum futures are highly correlated with spot prices, which is also one of the reasons why the Bitcoin spot ETF was approved.
Han said that if this correlation remains the same, then the possible reasons for the Ethereum spot ETF not being approved may be related to the differences between Ethereum and Bitcoin, especially Ethereum's proof-of-stake mechanism.
If the Ethereum spot ETF application is rejected, it may lead to litigation. The exchange believes that the probability of SEC approval is 30% to 40%.
