With the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF at the beginning of the year, funds from traditional finance have been pouring into the crypto world in the past few months. Especially after Bitcoin completed its halving, the new round of market narrative focus has once again returned to ETFs - Ethereum spot ETFs.
Now that the deadline for the key decision on the Ethereum spot ETF (May 23) is getting closer, judging from the remarks of celebrities and the unusual market movements, the outlook does not seem optimistic.
Odaily Planet Daily organizes the market's opinions on whether the US Ethereum spot ETF can be approved, and analyzes it based on the current development status of global crypto asset ETFs.
Ethereum Spot ETF Recent Status
The application for the Ethereum spot ETF in the United States was first submitted by VanEck on October 27 last year, followed by 21 Shares & Ark, Hashdex, Grayscale, Invesco & Galaxy, Fidelity, BlackRock and Bitwise. However, based on the previous SEC approval process for Bitcoin spot ETFs, a decision will be made within the deadline for the first ETF application, which is 240 days in total, and the final date is May 23 this year.
However, unlike the optimistic expectations before the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF, the market does not hold much hope for the approval of the Ethereum spot ETF. The main reason is that Ethereum has switched from PoW to PoS, and there is controversy over whether Ethereum should be considered a "security". However, the SEC has not expressed any opinion on this. If the SEC does not approve the Ethereum spot ETF, it will indirectly confirm the conclusion that Ethereum is a "security", which will result in the possibility that most altcoins on the market will not be able to apply for an ETF in the future.
Currently, industry celebrities and institutions in the market do not have much hope that the Ethereum spot ETF will be approved before May 23.
The latest to speak out was Justin Sun, founder of TRON, who believes that the Ethereum spot ETF will not be approved in May and said that the crypto industry still needs to prepare for long-term education from regulators, with a focus on helping them understand crypto.
Jan van Eck, CEO of VanEck, the first issuer to apply for an Ethereum spot ETF, also said, "We may be the first applicant to be rejected in May." Another source revealed that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is expected to reject VanEck and ARK's applications to launch an Ethereum spot ETF.
On-chain prediction market Polymarket, crypto market maker GSR and Bloomberg analysts have reduced the likelihood of approval of an Ethereum spot ETF to around 20%. GSR even predicts that the approval process for an Ethereum spot ETF could be extended to 2025 to 2026.
However, Grayscale still maintains high confidence in the approval of the Ethereum spot ETF.
In addition, the recent flow of ETH on exchanges and chains has been unusually frequent. The author has observed a continuous net outflow of ETH from exchanges. According to CoinCarp data, the net outflow of crypto exchanges exceeded 380,000 ETH in the past 30 days.
On April 28, the Franklin Ethereum spot ETF code EZET was listed on the DTCC website, which led to an increase in Ethereum prices, and 3 new whales withdrew 11,557 ETH from Binance, and then the suspected Sun Yuchen address accumulated 6743 ETH again. However, today there are also many addresses that transferred ETH to exchanges, and different trading operations also prove that the market has different opinions on the final decision of the Ethereum spot ETF.
in conclusion
On April 30, the Hong Kong Ethereum spot ETF will be officially open for trading. If investors are enthusiastic about trading and the trading situation is good, it may affect the SEC's views, and relevant institutions will also lobby the SEC. However, judging from the recent trends of the US Ethereum spot ETF and the views of relevant institutions, the possibility of approval seems unlikely.
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