Data on May 16 showed that the number of initial jobless claims in the United States that week was 222,000, higher than the expected 220,000. The easing of the job market and the resumption of the downward trend of inflation have increased the possibility of a rate cut in September. The Fed's Williams is more optimistic about inflation than traders. Williams expects the inflation rate to drop to 2.5% by the end of this year (the market expects 3.05%). If Williams's prediction is correct, it means that the Fed may cut interest rates earlier than the market expects.

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The U.S. Treasury Department has outlined its priorities for combating illicit financing, including a settlement with BN and warnings against pig-killing scams. The four priorities are to narrow gaps in anti-money laundering regulations, support a more effective and risk-centric framework, improve the efficiency of law enforcement agencies, and leverage technological innovation. Updating the existing cryptocurrency regulatory framework will support these priorities. The U.S. Senate voted 60 to 38 to deny the controversial crypto-asset accounting regulations of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The SEC's previously issued Staff Accounting Bulletin 121 (SAB121) requires companies to record their crypto assets on their balance sheets, but critics believe that this regulation is too strict and prevents major custodians and companies from holding crypto assets for their customers. Yorke Rhodes, head of Microsoft's digital transformation, blockchain and cloud supply chain, said that with the advancement of encryption and artificial intelligence technology, agents that combine the power of the two can be created, and currently only the surface of cryptocurrency and AI has been touched. According to the ETC Group weekly report, the global ETH ETP net outflow last week was about 63.5 million US dollars, and the BTC ETP net inflow last week was 92.5 million US dollars. The reasons may include fierce competition in L1 and uncertainty in the approval of the US ETH spot ETF. According to CoinGecko data, the market value of the Meme category exceeded 57 billion US dollars, outperforming other cryptocurrency markets. The Swiss Federal Council issued a consultation document, planning to adopt the Global Cryptocurrency Tax Reporting Standard (CARF), expand Switzerland's progressive cryptocurrency market supervision, and help maintain the reputation of the Swiss financial center. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) stated in a research report that as inefficient miners withdraw, the mining cost is estimated to drop to 45,000 US dollars.

JPMorgan Chase said that it had previously expected that the computing power would drop sharply after the halving due to unprofitable miners exiting the network. This is now happening, but with some delays. Negentropic, co-founder of Glassnode, said: After the release of CPI and retail sales data, the US dollar index suffered a heavy blow, which looks like the "right shoulder" in a major head and shoulders top pattern. More downside for the US dollar index will help risk assets BTC and the S&P 500 rebound until the end of summer. CF Benchmark analysts said that although BTC broke through the $66,000 mark, the implied volatility of put options is still higher than that of call options. Option traders expect BTC to adjust in the short term. The volatility curve between long-term put options and call options is relatively flat, and call options are slightly tilted, indicating that investors are more optimistic about the long-term prospects of BTC. A group of four senators including Chuck Schumer in the United States recommended that Congress spend at least $32 billion in the next three years to develop artificial intelligence (AI) and safeguards. On May 16, the US BTC ETF had a net inflow of $257 million. According to the first quarter holdings report (13F) submitted by US listed companies to the US Securities and Exchange Commission, as of March 31, 1,028 companies with assets exceeding US$100 million reported holding BTC ETFs, with a total holding of US$10.9 billion. Vetle Lunde, senior analyst at K33 Research, said: In contrast, 95 professional companies invested in gold ETFs in the first quarter. Among them, 414 companies held BlackRock's BTC spot ETF "IBIT", breaking the record. Even a new ETF with 20 holders is extremely rare.

Data on May 16 showed that the number of initial jobless claims in the United States that week was 222,000, higher than the expected 220,000. The easing of the labor market and the resumption of the downward trend of inflation have increased the possibility of a rate cut in September. Fed Bostic said: Thank you for the cooling of the latest CPI report. We will pay attention to the data in May and June to ensure that the data will not reverse. It may be appropriate to cut interest rates before the end of the year. Fed Williams is more optimistic about inflation than traders. Williams expects the inflation rate to drop to 2.5% by the end of this year (market expectations are 3.05%), saying: There is no need to wait until inflation reaches exactly 2% to relax monetary policy. If Williams's prediction is correct, it means that the Fed may cut interest rates earlier than the market expects. Traders seem to be increasingly convinced that the Fed may start cutting interest rates as early as September, and pushed the US stock index to a record high on May 16. Analyst Jacob Mitchell said that if you put the inflation data together with the retail sales data earlier this week, it is a considerable weakness. On May 17, Bitcoin rebounded to $67,000. The Shanzhai volatility was large, and Bitcoin was relatively stable. Tether issued $1 billion in stablecoins.

Data from Bank of America showed that in the latest week, the net outflow of US money funds was 3.7 billion US dollars, and the net outflow of inflation-protected bonds was 700 million US dollars, the largest scale in 9 weeks; the stock market inflow was 11.9 billion US dollars; and the cryptocurrency inflow was 200 million US dollars. In the high interest rate for more than two years, it cannot be ignored that the US money market funds have accumulated more than 6 trillion US dollars of "dead water". The possibility of the Fed's interest rate cut in September is about 70%. The Fed's high interest rate has dropped, and this dead water will also be revived and overflow, forming a potential positive for other markets. On May 17, spot gold rose 1.5% to 2415 US dollars per ounce. Because it is clear that the next step of the Fed is to cut interest rates, it is expected that there will still be a long bull market in the future (the process of the Fed's interest rate falling from 5.5% to 2.5%). UBS said that under the premise of falling inflation, the S&P 500 index may reach 5500 points by the end of this year, and the Bank of Montreal raised the year-end target of the S&P 500 index from 5100 points to 5600 points by nearly 10%. The old man also fell a few days ago. There is no factor that changes the cyclical nature of the Bitcoin bull market. US inflation is falling and interest rate cuts are being discussed. As long as the familiar bull market follows, it is worth it for the old man. (This is how Bitcoin has been in the past few cycles.) Have a good rest over the weekend. #MemeWatch2024 #芝商所拟推出比特币现货交易 #BTC走势分析